Will Bitcoin Boom or Crash Against Powell’s Speech?


After heavy losses last week after a failed attempt to break through the main $25,000 threshold, Bitcoin stabilizes this week. Cryptocurrency investors are wondering where BTC’s next significant move will be.

However, the indices and signals seem to be contradictory, with features that indicate a rebound in Bitcoin, and other features that raise fears of further losses, and a possible passage below the major threshold of $20,000.

Blockchain data shows a mixed outlook for Bitcoin

For example, according to blockchain data analytics firm Glassnode, USDC deposits were removed from cryptocurrency trading platforms today. 13 months low. However, you should know that stablecoins like USDC are deposited on crypto platforms with the aim of using them to buy other cryptocurrencies.

In fact, stablecoins act as liquidity line on the accounts opened by traders on crypto exchanges. Therefore, low USDC deposits with exchanges indicate low investment intentions in cryptocurrencies, which does not argue for a Bitcoin rebound.

On the other hand, again according to the data provided by Glassnode, the positions of Bitcoin Hodlers (those who are determined to hold their Bitcoins for the long term) reached today. 11 months old. Note that cryptocurrencies held in “cold” crypto wallets, or simply outside of trading platforms, are considered cryptocurrencies held by Hodlers.

bitcoin deposit

Evolution of Bitcoin deposits over 7 days. Source: Glassnode.

This analysis is confirmed by the fact that the amount of Bitcoins deposited with trading platforms reached a 4-year low on Thursday morning, indicating that traders are withdrawing their Bitcoin from exchanges to store them long-term in crypto wallets.

In other words, the data shows that traders have no intention of betting heavily on Bitcoin, but they also have no intention to bring into panic and sell their BTC.

Jerome Powell’s intervention in Jackson Hole will be decisive for Bitcoin

Regarding the likely evolution of Bitcoin for this day Friday, Nutrition boss speechJerome Powell will be at the annual Jackson Hole symposium.

In fact, the monetary policy of the United States has had a very clear impact on the price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies since the beginning of the year. Fed rate hikes, which boost the Dollar’s attractiveness and hurt the economy, prompting a flight to safe havens, were the main factor behind Bitcoin’s slide from record highs last year.

However, Powell’s speech This Friday at 4 pm They are anxiously awaited by investors, who will be watching to see if the Fed will hold firm hawk with a rate hike of 0.75% for the next meeting in September, or if he intends to start slowing monetary tightening with a Fed Funds rate hike limited to 0.50%.

In the first case, there is no need to expect it without doubt new bitcoin losses. However, the losses could be limited, knowing that this is a situation that is already widely expected. On the other hand, if Powell’s words sound less hawkish than expected, Bitcoin could largely benefit.

Technical thresholds to watch on BTC/USD today

Finally, regarding the important portals to monitor Bitcoin in the event of a strong reaction to Powell’s speech, note that the $20,700/20,800 zone is an important short-term support, already tested on July 18 and 26, as well as on August 20 and 21.

Bitcoin, H4 Chart

Then, the next support to consider is the major psychological threshold of $20,000. Conversely, the first possible chart grid is the psychological threshold of $22,000, before a larger threshold at $22,400 (July 8 high, July 21 low and August 4 low). Next are the $23,600/$700 areas and then $24,250, before the key $25,000 threshold and last week at $25,212.

Crypto-assets are a risky investment.

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