The origin of Bitcoin? – Contribution

The origin of Bitcoin?  - Contribution

Arcane Research suggests that Bitcoin’s Bottom is near. Glassnode too.

Has Bitcoin Hit a Bottom?

The company Arcane compared the period of this bear market with those of 2014-15 and 2018. It seems unlikely that the end of the tunnel is far away.

Currently, bitcoin is down 77% from its 2021 high to its recent low ($15,500). We are 376 days from the record on November 10, 2021.

Similarly, the decline was 85% in 2014. The low point occurred 407 days before the memorable bull run towards $20,000.

Finally, the 2018 drawdown was 84%. It took BTC 364 days to bottom out and start rising.

If the past is of any use, the rise may resume soon. Anyway, there are 480 days left until the next half.

And by the way, bitcoin generally starts its cycle before the halving, which expands the amount of BTC created with each block…

bitcoin bottom
X-axis: Number of days between two records / Y-axis: amount of drop between high and low

Glassnode also released an interesting chart this week. Net profits or net loss. It is done by calculating the difference between the purchase price and the sale price of all the BTC that changed address during the period studied.

The following chart shows, on a net basis, that BTC holders have been selling at a loss for quite some time now. The net loss was equal to 521,000 BTC in the last week.

Glassnode’s comment:

“If we compare the cumulative net loss (from the FTX bankruptcy) with the “COVID” and “LUNA” crashes which were accompanied by a decrease of 44% and 39% respectively, we notice that the capitalization is less with recently. pronounced drop in bitcoin (26%). »

Bitcoin: cumulative profit/loss
Net profit week on week (green) or loss (red).

In other words, we are approaching the bottom, if the latter is not already behind us. Buy low, sell high…

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Nicolas Teterel avatar
Nicolas Teterel

Journalist reporting on the Bitcoin revolution. My papers deal with bitcoin through geopolitical, economic and libertarian prisms.

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