The Danish Saxo Bank makes some ‘scary predictions’ for the coming year. Their forecasts for the US dollar and the price of gold are particularly interesting for the crypto market. What is the Bank’s “Field Forecast”? And how can crypto investors even get well-founded forecasts?
Predictions unlikely but not impossible at Saxo Bank
Saxo Bank, a money house that focuses on online trading and investments, sees global politics in “war economy” mode in the coming year. 2023 is the year the market finally realizes that inflation will remain at high levels. According to Saxo Bank, the tightening of monetary policy by the Fed and the ECB will lead to problems in the US deposit markets, leading to an easing of monetary policy.
One of the alarming statements concerns China, which, according to the aforementioned forecasts, will leave the IMF together with the OPEC countries and will no longer do business in dollars. China may also refrain from the zero-COVID policy and the recovery in private demand will continue to lift commodity prices.
— Saxo (@saxobank) December 6, 2022
According to Saxo Bank forecasts, those with gold as an asset reserve should also pay attention – and stock up as a matter of urgency. Because the precious metal could reach the $3,000 mark next year. The reason: The price of gold will skyrocket to real interest rates on due to galloping inflation.
Saxo Bank’s Chief Investment Officer (CIO), Steen Jakobsen, commented on his employer’s prediction in a recent interview with Bloomberg. He admitted that the Outrageous Predictions, as they are called, are extremely scary, but that some forecasts are not as incredible as the name suggests.
For example, it is not entirely likely that China and all OPEC countries will turn their backs on the International Monetary Fund and agree on another reserve currency, but “the underlying microtrend” is what could actually happen.
Effects on Bitcoin and Co.
Of course, the highly unlikely scenarios that, according to Saxo Bank, will emerge in the coming year will have a strong impact on the crypto market. Many see the initial currency Bitcoin as an alternative to gold and a long-term, decentralized replacement for fiat.
But how much the link between the gold price and the Bitcoin price is still a matter of debate. What is certain is that if you consider BTC as a reserve currency and Fiat replacement sees, BTC price volatility is an issue in terms of acceptance.
As long as the course of Bitcoin is valued as a currency pair with the national currencies US dollar and euro, it needs analysis and forecasts that are more likely than the “outrageous forecasts” of Saxo Bank.
Investors and traders want to establish and professionalize their investment and trading decisions on a solid basis. To do this, they need tools that provide an overview of the market without overloading them with information.
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5 more Saxo Bank cases for 2023
Multi-million dollar energy investments are being made by technology companies and a group of billionaires
In 2023, well-known technology companies and high-tech billion investors want to promote the energy transition and form a consortium called “Third Stone”. It is the largest research and development project since the Manhattan Project. Companies that can contribute to the development of new energy generation sources and the expansion of energy storage infrastructure are gaining enormous value in a still weak investment environment.
Emmanuel Macron resigns as President of France
The President’s power base, weakened by the lost majority in parliament, allows the opposition to continue to strengthen and leads Le Pen to resort to Article 49.3 of the French constitution.
Important laws are passed in a hurry, avoiding the government. Macron no longer has any creative power and is withdrawing. Macron’s resignation paves the way for right-wing populist candidate Le Pen, whose statements and positions stem from an ongoing crisis in the EU.
Creation of a common EU army
Trump announces his candidacy for the 2024 presidential election. With the ongoing war in Ukraine and the reduced support for the Americans due to the weakening of a democratic president, the EU countries are taking huge steps: creating an EU army, with space forces, sea forces, air and army are fully trained and operational. The budget: 10 trillion euros over 20 years.
Bonds are issued for financing and the costs are distributed to the Member States according to GDP key. The market for European government bonds is becoming very important and the boom in defense investments is causing a huge revaluation of the euro.
At least one country has banned meat production by 2030
To achieve the goal of climate neutrality by 2050, annual meat consumption must be reduced to 24 kg per person. As some governments believe that consumption cannot be reduced through voluntary abstinence, at least one state will decide to introduce a high meat tax from 2025 and eventually ban the industrial production of meat from live animals by law.
Plant-based meat alternatives and in vitro meat are promoted and are gradually replacing animal meat.
Great Britain votes on rejoining the EU
The Tories’ 2023 lead has dwindled under Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt. Britain has retreated due to austerity measures. High unemployment and declining tax revenues increase new borrowing and limit the state’s ability to act.
Sunak has no major support and there are mass public protests demanding new elections immediately. Opinion polls show that doubts about the Brexit referendum are now growing in England and Wales too. Sunak then resigned from office and called new elections.
Labor leader Keir Starmer jumps on the polls, calls for a new referendum as a non-party candidate for Prime Minister and campaigns for re-entry into the EU. He will lead his Labor government in the third quarter of 2023 and promises to hold a referendum without Brexit on 1 November 2023. The vote falls in favor of re-entry into the EU.
The British pound is up 10 percent against the euro and 15 percent against the Swiss franc. Re-entry into the EU has led to a huge increase in foreign investment in the City of London.