The SEC vs Ripple court case is entering the final stage. XRP investors are excited as Cardano’s founder, Charles Hoskinson, rumors that the process was coming to an end.
Ripple forecast: will the USD 0.40 mark fall?
Key facts at a glance
- The XRP price is currently struggling with the hurdle at $0.400
- Buyers could be active in the range between $0.368 and $0.363
- If the support level at $0.349 cannot be defended, the bullish XRP forecast will be invalid
XRP price today is $0.391 with a 24 hour trading volume of $931.4 million. The price has dropped 30 percent in the last 24 hours. XRP is ranked #6 on CoinMarketCap, with a market cap of $19.7 billion.
XRP took a beating on a weekly basis, but was able to consolidate above the $0.372 level, which is a support level. Currently, the downside appears to be intensifying and may test the $0.368-$0.363 area several times.
If you want to be aware of the risk of buying here, you should consider that there is a fair value gap in the above mentioned price range. Chances of a trend reversal are very high at such weighted points.
The risk of a further drop in price is offset by the possibility of a rapid rise to the area between 0.368 and 0.363 US dollars. The prerequisite for this is that the barrier of 0.40 US dollars is overcome.
The 4 hour chart also shows a bullish move, but if it breaks the support at $0.349 it would generate a lower low. Bullish assumptions would be invalidated by a series of lower lows and the Bears could target $0.314.
SEC laws: verdict closer than expected
In a few days, maybe hours, the crypto world could find out who will win the legal battle between the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Ripple.
The expected ruling in court would determine whether or not Ripple violated federal securities laws. At the heart of the SEC’s indictment is the allegation that the XRP token should be legally treated as a security and that Ripple thus raised approximately $1.3 billion from the sale of unregistered securities.
It is expected that if the judge on the case, Analisa Torres, also reaches this conclusion, Ripple’s conviction for trading in unregistered securities will continue.
If, on the other hand, the court does not classify XRP as a security, there would be no legal violation according to the common opinion of observers, and the people responsible at Ripple would be free to speak.
Since the deadline for both parties to submit final documents has already passed, a verdict is expected soon. According to rumors that reached Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson, that end could be as soon as tomorrow.
Hoskinson warns of the “disastrous effects” of the verdict
Hoskinson said he has heard rumors that the SEC’s case against Ripple could end as early as December 15.
The SEC sued Ripple, its CEO Brad Garlinghouse and board member Chris Larsen in December 2020. What is particularly interesting is that the lawsuit was filed just one day after former SEC Chairman Jay Clayton resigned.
Ripple’s defense is primarily based on the assumption that trading in XRP does not meet the criteria of the so-called Howey test and is therefore not to be considered simply as a securities trade.
Hoskinson noted in an ask-me-anything format streamed on YouTube on December 11 that the outcome of the highly publicized crypto court case is likely to have “disastrous” consequences for the already fractured crypto sector.
The rumours, which Hoskinson also reproduces, are based on the unlikely possibility that a verdict could be issued in the case as soon as possible. Both parties submitted their final applications a few days ago, which require a judge’s decision in summary proceedings. So both Ripple and the SEC are pushing for a quick verdict, no trial.
Judgment with signal effect – regardless of outcome?
The widely anticipated verdict is not only important for the future of Ripple, but will be cited throughout the crypto scene as well as the traditional financial world. Finally, the judge’s decision also includes deciding which (digital) assets are considered securities in the US.
Ripple has won several disputes against the SEC in recent months. For example, documents were released about SEC employees who, according to Ripple, allegedly traded XRP themselves.
Even if this and other partial successes have bolstered the hopes of Ripple supporters, not all observers are convinced that the blockchain company will emerge from the legal battle unscathed.
For example, Chia Network COO Gene Hoffman tweeted that the judge will rule in favor of the SEC. The verdict could be nothing other than that Ripple’s sales of XRP turned the coin into a security.
The only outcome is that a federal judge will rule that Ripple’s sales of XRP made XRP a security.
— Gene Hoffman hoffmang.xch 🌱 (@hoffmang) December 7, 2022
However, in this case it is important to wait and see if the rumors about the end of the upcoming process come true. After all, unlike Hoskinson, Garlinghouse, the boss of Ripple, previously said that a judgment could not be expected until the first half of 2023 at the earliest.
Conclusion
Even if the chart shows a consolidation and therefore a decrease in the volatility of the XRP price, the Ripple coin is under pressure due to the current reports that the SEC law may end soon.
With an open court decision regarding the characterization of XRP as a security, the interim price development is also open and therefore difficult to predict. As with all trading decisions, the risk/opportunity assessment must be made by the trader himself.
It will be interesting to see how buyers and sellers behave on a retest of the FVG between $0.368 and $0.363. It can be an ideal entry point for a 20 percent return or the starting point for bearish momentum.
