Although they have been in a range for several weeks, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) still show bullish intentions. Will cryptocurrencies finally rise above their psychological resistance or has the correction begun? Find out the different situations in this analysis of the week.
Bitcoin (BTC) is getting worse
Still rising above the Kijun and the Ichimoku indicator cloud in Daily, the price of bitcoin (BTC) failed to break through its psychological resistance at the $30,000 level. It has been almost a month now that BTC is stable and moving in a range between $26,800 and $28,800. So will it be able to break through its resistance in the coming days or will it give us new buying opportunities first during a correction?
Figure 1 – Bitcoin daily price chart
As of today, the price is showing a slowdown in its trend after the strong rise of the previous week. With the Kijun away from the Tenkan and prices, this means that the market is currently in an overbought state. The current lateralization is therefore a good thing since new liquids can be accumulated so that it can go higher later, but above all, it allows the Kijun to rise gradually towards prices. This curve acts as a support and as long as it stays below the prices, we can say that the trend is still clearly bullish.
All that needs to be done in the coming days is for the price to break its resistance at $28,800 and finally break through the psychological level of $30,000. In the event of a failure, the Fibonacci retracement allows us to identify the different potential rebound levels to monitor. There is $25,500 (0.382) which represents psychological support, $24,366 (0.5) which corresponds to a 50% correction of the rise of the last few weeks, then the famous $0.618 to $23,226 which is the healthiest correction level.
One thing is for sure, we will have to stay above the big blue rectangle as much as possible, because the price has consolidated before. Going back is not a good sign because we have a lot more liquidity than before, so a breakout is likely to happen eventually. We must therefore avoid falling below $25,000 to avoid any risk of exhaustion.
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Is $30,000 coming soon?
We have already been waiting for several weeks for price to retrace above $30,000 after the breakout of a descending extension pattern at right angle at h4. In general, this type of chart pattern offers good upside probabilities and as we can see, 50% of the upward movement has already been achieved. The theoretical objective of this pattern is $30,620 and will remain valid until the price comes back below $25,000.
Figure 2 – Bitcoin price chart (h4)
Inside the current rise, we can observe the construction of a small ascending triangle in which the price has been moving since March 20. If the resistance level at $28,800 is broken, $30,600 is also the objective of this pattern. A double objective therefore for Bitcoin in the event of a bullish departure from this range.
If the price were to break this consolidation below, it would be best to return to the $25,000 level (0.382 of the Daily), with the risk of invalidating our bullish objective.
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Ether (ETH) on its way to $2,000?
Regarding the price of Ethereum cryptocurrency, ether (ETH), this week it broke an ascending triangle from above on the H4 time unit. This breakout triggered a bullish target of around $2,024, which is the high at the entrance of the triangle, which carried over to its breakout.
Figure 3 – Ether price chart (h4)
Although the price had reached 50% of its target, the cryptocurrencies started a correction, however, and here is a perfect retracement of ETH on the previous resistance which is now a theoretical support. Therefore it will take a replay here to keep the objective motivated. Currently, the trend is still bullish as long as the price does not go back under the cloud.
If the price goes back below the cloud, then it will break the Kijun below, which is a sell signal that should not be ignored. There would then be risks if the price came back to test its next support at $1,700, or even the next one at $1,600.
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The conclusion of this technical analysis
Cryptocurrencies maintain their bullish targets. However, the prices entered the consolidation phase and therefore the trends have lost momentum. It will take a new bullish impulse to avoid important supports and start a correction.
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Chart source: TradingView
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