Litecoin is currently one of the big winners on the crypto market. The LTC/USD exchange rate was still at USD 60 on Monday and rose to around USD 80 within two days, which corresponds to a price jump of more than 30 percent. The price of Litecoin rose proportionately much more than the overall market. Top cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum also increased slightly, but only in the low single-digit percentage range.
However, Litecoin’s price explosion did not come as a complete surprise. As early as Monday’s price forecast, kryptoszene.de explained in its analysis why an explosive LTC price breakout may be imminent.
Litecoin semi in August 2023 creates buying sentiment
One of the main reasons for the sharp rise in price is the upcoming Litecoin half-life next year. The cryptocurrency, which once emerged from a fork of Bitcoin and is often considered digital gold by fans, on par with Bitcoin, will halve as soon as August 2023. Is Litecoin worth buying now?
$LTC It is the most bullish altcoin right now 👀
Why? About half of next year. PoW coins always react to this event and show reasonable gains in anticipation of the spread pic.twitter.com/VpxpOxpx83
— Darcy (@luigi_pascali) November 23, 2022
History shows that half-hour events always have a strong impact on prices. Because the supply for the miners is reduced by half. The price of Bitcoin benefits from the usual supply-demand system that defines the financial markets. Awakens well-bound covetousness. With each half, there is a significant boost in demand.
Especially since the Bitcoin supply is limited to a total of 21 million BTC. More and more Bitcoin of the total amount available has already been put into circulation. However, due to the halvings, there will be less and less new bitcoins coming to the market in the future. That’s why it becomes harder and harder to get a lot of Bitcoin from half to half.
Bitcoin investors look forward to the day, which happens every four years, well in advance. Because history shows that huge growth has been observed after each half. With Bitcoin, the halving of this block reward for the miners occurred in 2012, 2016 and 2020. Analysts consider the time between two halving events as a completed cycle with different market stages. Of course this can be related to the spread of Litecoin. Because even with Litecoin, the supply quantity is strictly limited.
Gains after each half:
1: +8000%
2: +3800%
3: +700%If this chart plays out and you buy the bottom, you’re looking at x10 in #Bitcoin valuation
Not bad at all…the problem is that few retailers will buy the bun (if this plays out this way ofc) pic.twitter.com/vc9tGbVOxb
— Joako 🏴☠️ (@Joakobtc) May 6, 2022
A big bull market to be expected only after the semi-final
Although there is often a price revival before the spread, which can be attributed to the increased euphoria among investors, the extremely bullish phase, which is often associated with parabolic price increases, does not start with a time delay after the. disappear in half. So the day of the spread itself doesn’t necessarily have a big price impact.
This was recently observed during the Bitcoin Expansion 2020. This happened in May 2020. The price could rise significantly beforehand. But the price only went parabolically up until the end of the year, ie a year and a half after the half year. However, the further phase of the cycle is usually characterized by a clear bear market before each phase resumes with the next cycle.
The Litecoin cryptocurrency emerged from the Bitcoin fork in 2011 and many halving events have occurred since then. The chart analysis shows the impact of Litecoin halves on the LTC/USD rate in the past. From a historical perspective, conclusions can be drawn as to whether it is a good time to buy LTC at USD 80, or whether Litecoin may already be overbought after the strong rise in the past few days down
Historical Comparison: Is LTC Still Correcting?
Let’s take the last half in August 2019 as an example. After LTC/USD found the bottom of the previous cycle’s bear market at around $22 on December 14, 2018, the price rose continuously in the following months. The growth phase thus began eight months before the actual half-way event.
However, the peak of this temporary price increase was already reached on June 22, 2019, about 1.5 months before the actual halving. During this phase, LTC/USD was able to rise to 146 dollars, which corresponds to an increase of more than 560 percent in just over half a year.
However, the half event itself was not a buying event for LTC. In the six months after the expansion, the price fell sharply again, falling as low as $25 on March 13, 2020. Thus Litecoin recorded a decrease of almost 83 percent after the expansion. However, this correction was accompanied by the Corona crisis as a special effect, which pushed the entire crypto market down. Without the Black Swan event, the downward movement would not have been as strong. However, even before the start of the pandemic, LTC showed weakness and fell as low as $39.
The Litecoin price only increased sharply again in the parabolic phase of the overall market after the Bitcoin halving. In contrast to other halvings, the BTC halving event not only affects Bitcoin itself, but other cryptocurrencies can also benefit from it afterwards.
If you compare this cycle now around half of 2019 with the current market stage, Litecoin may still be in the initial stage of a bullish upward movement. The bottom of the 2022 bear market for LTC was reached so far around $40 on June 14th. Since then, the price has increased by almost 100 percent within 5 months. Growth is still well below the 560 percent before the last half.
Most notably, however, Litecoin is now starting to rise much earlier before the halving event. Because the low point so far this year is about 14 months before the half. In 2019, however, the movement started half a year later. This allows two conclusions: First, the spreading effect will last for a longer period this time. However, it is uncertain whether this will result in a stronger price gain. There may also be a slower increase.
The second possibility is that Litecoin is still seeing its bottom and there is one more correction ahead of the actual pre-expansion bull run that will take LTC below $40. For this to happen, however, the market as a whole to make another major correction.
For investors investing in Litecoin for the long term, however, this should not be the deciding factor. Because analysts estimate that the course can explode to hundreds or even 2,000 dollars in the coming years, as kryptoszene.de explained in its analysis on Monday.
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