While the crypto market continues to show weakness around the FTX crash and the Bitcoin price is currently fighting for support at USD 16,000, one altcoin in the top 15 is surprisingly strong. Against the overall trend, the price of Litecoin has recorded a growth of about 8 percent in the last three months. During the same period, top cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum and Cardano fell more than 30 percent. The Bitcoin course is also weak in direct comparison with Litecoin and loses about 25 percent within 3 months.
Litecoin Halving: History promises a 500 percent increase
What is the reason behind the strength of Litecoin? According to analysts, the main driver for the Litecoin price should be the upcoming halving event in 2023. Although the next Bitcoin halving of the newly minted BTC per block is not due until 2024, the Litecoin halving will occur in August 2023. Then the block reward for miners of the Bitcoin fork will be only 6.25 LTC per block instead of 12.5 LTC. As with Bitcoin, the spread occurs every 4 years and is not expected to end until 2142.
In the run-up to the halving, the euphoria among investors is traditionally great and this also affects the price. The effect of the spread becomes clear when you look at how the price of Bitcoin has benefited from each halving. A few months before the last half in 2020, the price of Bitcoin was still falling below $4,000. By the time the half was done, the price had already risen to about $9,000. And the halving didn’t have the greatest effect a year later, when the price exploded to $69,000. Anyone who bought Bitcoin before the spread could, at best, achieve a return of more than 1,600 percent.
These laws also apply to the Litecoin course. The last halving here happened in August 2019. At the time, LTC was trading around $70. Within a year after the expansion, the price rose to an all-time high of $414. In the best case, investors could achieve a 500 percent return after the spread.
Litecoin has increased strength against Bitcoin
The LTC-BTC chart also shows how much Litecoin is already benefiting from the spread effect. It shows how the price of Litecoin is developing in direct comparison to Bitcoin. As early as June of this year, the value of Litecoin dropped to 0.0017 Bitcoin. This very low value was last in February 2017. However, Litecoin has been able to significantly weaken Bitcoin’s dominance since then. Investors are currently getting 0.0037 Bitcoin for one Litecoin. The value increased by more than 100 percent within 5 months.
Additionally, the LTC/BTC chart shows that Litecoin broke out of a major wedge chart pattern falling to the upside in August of this year. The technical price target is 0.015 Bitcoin. Accordingly, the Litecoin course could develop about 400 percent stronger than Bitcoin.
Buy Litecoin 85 percent cheaper
Despite the strong trend, the price of Litecoin is still at a very low level in the long term and buying LTC for USD 60 at the moment could still offer a good entry point. Figures from coinmarketcap.com show that Litecoin can currently be bought at a “discount” of more than 85 percent compared to its all-time high price from last year. The chances that the LTC/USD price is at the bottom or close to this zone seem quite high. Because historical comparison shows that corrections between 80 and 90 percent are the usual range between bull market highs and bear market lows.
Of course, this assumes that no other black swan events, such as the recent FTX crash, have hit the market. Should another crypto exchange crash or some other negative event surprise the market, there is a strong chance that Litecoin will retest the June $40 lows before the next rally.
Technical analysis of the LTC/USD chart can provide additional indications for the short to medium term price trend of Litecoin. Looking at the small 1-hour chart, the LTC/USD has formed an ascending triangle pattern. This formation is a bullish pattern according to technical analysis, so a breakout of the horizontal resistance line is likely.
LTC short-term price target between $46 and $78
However, Litecoin still failed to break through the strong resistance at around $63 and declare it as a new support. Quite the contrary: LTC/USD is currently struggling not to leave the ascending support line of the formation at around $60. If the correction is confirmed, the technical price target is around $46, close to the June lows. This would correspond to a minus of more than 30 percent. On the other hand, if Litecoin price manages to break the resistance line to the upside, it could bring LTC/USD to a technical price target around $78
LTC price jump up to 2000 dollars is possible?
The daily chart of Litecoin is very interesting for the medium term price trend. Here, you can see that the price has been moving in a large falling wedge since January 2021 and has not yet been able to break through the resistance and support area. This chart pattern is also clearly bullish according to technical analysis. If LTC/USD manages to break out to the upside, the technical price target is around $335, which represents a price jump of more than 430 percent. The price is currently trying to test the resistance. A directional decision must be made by March 2023 at the latest when the pattern reaches its endpoint.
Analysts are also long-term bullish on Litecoin. Digital Bonn Price expects LTC to rise to more than $150 as early as next year and may reach prices of around $1,200 by the early 2030s. The financial blog changelly.com even believes that Litecoin prices of around $2,000 will be possible in the future.
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