A recent analysis by Glassnode found that long-term capitalization is on the rise. This suggests that Bitcoin may suffer. On the other hand, Wall Street believes the price could drop as low as $10,000.
A recent Glassnode analysis showed that long-term holders (LTH) are locking up their coins at a 33% loss. This shows the capitalization of LTH, which suggests that Bitcoin (BTC) may be based.
Wall Street disagrees, however. She believes BTC could go as low as $10,000.
Glassnode analysts said:
“That often ends up happening [Langzeithalter] shoulder an increasing share of the unrealized loss. In other words, for a bear market to reach a decisive bottom, the proportion of coins held at losses should shift primarily to those with the least price sensitivity and the most conviction.”
These signals indicate a bottom for BTC
At the same time, whale investors with more than 1,000 BTC and “shrimp” investors with less than 1 BTC also collected BTC during the bear market. This accumulation indicates that many investors are accumulating BTC at reasonable prices with the expectation that the price will trend higher soon.
Glassnode’s numbers also suggest that sales of BTC miners have slowed. The selling trend comes as miners were trying to get out as soon as possible in the expectation that BTC will continue to fall.
The slowdown suggests that miners also believe that BTC has bottomed out. That’s why they’re in no rush to leave, selling because they need the money — not because they think they’ll lose profits.
Additionally, The Crypto Trader author Glen Goodman referred to the magazine cover indicator technique in his interview with Bloomberg Crypto. In doing so, it proves that BTC may have finally taken off.
The indicator says that sentiment spread through prominent media increases market sentiment. Right now, all the media is spreading headlines with bearish sentiments. However, Goodman says the market goes in cycles. He therefore believes that the bearish sentiment is likely to reverse soon.
“When people feel really negative and we see all these really bad headlines […]then I start to think things will get better soon.”
Will BTC continue to fall?
According to Glassnode, despite all the indicators pointing to the bottom of Bitcoin, there are also indicators to the contrary.
According to the data, short-term holders have held about 3% to 4% of the total supply of Bitcoin during previous bear markets. In the current winter, however, this proportion is around 16%.
This suggests that it may still be some time before the BTC supply is reallocated to less price sensitive investors. Meanwhile, Bitcoin may continue its slide as volatility fails to calm down.
Glassnode analysts comment on the numbers as follows:
“Bitcoin investors are not out of the woods yet.”
In addition, a recent survey of Wall Street investors found that respondents do not expect a bull run anytime soon. Most respondents (60%) believe BTC could fall to $10,000.
Text credit: Cryptoslate
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