Is a Bitcoin bull rally possible for Christmas?

In a bear market since breaking out of $30,000, Bitcoin could be about to change momentum. So thinks Dave the Wave, an analyst who predicts a bright future for the crypto-refund on his Twitter.

A new dynamic for Bitcoin?

The analyst with 131,000 followers had already predicted the fall of Bitcoin last year and returns this time with good news: a trend reversal and raise your BTC during the Christmas period.

#btc A Christmas rally on the cards… pic.twitter.com/CNQGaOu6Yw

— dave the wave 🌊🐫 (@davthewave) December 4, 2022

Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $17,000. If it reaches the analyst’s target of $19,000, a upside potential 11% will be considered the number 1 crypto on the market.

The logarithmic growth curve (LGC): a crystal ball?

Dave the Wave also analyzes BTC over a longer period of time using his model, the logarithmic growth curve (LGC).

Many things in life follow growth curves, logarithmic Where exponential. Exponential growth is seen in situations like multiplying interest on a bank account or a growing number of social media followers. The gains are slow at first and don’t start to take off until later. On the other hand, logarithmic growth is seen when gains are rapid at first and then begin to decline reach a plateau. Bitcoin is an example of the latter.

Logarithmic curve vs. exponential curve – Source: Max Market on medium.com

Growth occurs in cycles and culminates in exponential peaks (high points) and corrections (low points). In previous Bitcoin cycles, the logarithmic growth curve model had been applied by various analysts. Here’s an example of a Trololo graphic posted on Reddit in 2014.

It is what is important here use the curve as average price. Prices are expected to open around this average, up and down, predicting future prices and optimizing entry points.

The example of Trololo is very significant at the time: it predicted an average price of $10,000 at the end of 2017, and the price was well below $1,000 during the previous correction in 2014. While BTC was below the $10,000 range, towards $3,000 at the bottom, this roughly matches the Trololo pattern, as seen in the following chart.

2017 Price Forecast – Source: TradingView

Thanks to his model, Dave the Wave claims that BTC presents an “optimal” opportunity for long-term bullish investors.

He looked soberly, without the great expectation before … and without great disappointment afterwards, the current prices of Bitcoin are normal and optimal for those who are interested in risk and reward.

It looked simple and sober, without high expectations and possible disappointment in the future, the current price of Bitcoin is normal and optimal for those who are interested in the risk reward system.

Long-term BTC (LGC model) – Source: Dave the Wave on Twitter

The model LGC It is supposed to predict the highs and lows of Bitcoin in its macro cycle (long-term context). Dave the Wave has repeatedly stated on Twitter that BTC is currently “shopping area” of the model. Despite the bearish outlook in the market at the moment, the analyst gives hope for the future of cryptocurrencies.

Some analysts agree

Credible encryptionanother analyst on Twitter, he also believes that Bitcoin is preparing for a bullish continuation.

No change in my expectations. Still looking for $19,000. BTC has made a nice tight consolidation here after a clean impulse on a low time frame. He could initially drop into $16,000 to reach these built-in lows but still expect to follow up after that.

My expectations have not changed. I’m still looking for the $19,000 goal. On a small scale, BTC created a nice consolidation after its last bullish impulse. It could first revisit $16,000 before bouncing back from the lows. I’m still expecting more upside after these moves.

BTC short term – Source: Credible encryption on Twitter

To continue the theme, find our last article on the end of the bear market: