BTC / USD analysis from Wednesday, one day behind. On the menu, the traditional summary on a chain of Glassnode, and the latest geopolitical maneuvers depicting a new global monetary order.
GlassNode Weekly Report Summary
The entry in LARP is that “Almost all indicators have historical lows, which may indicate bottom formation.”
GN has reviewed four models that can, in principle, a bun :
- (Red line) Mayer multiple: BTC is trading at a 40% discount to the 200-day moving average. Historically, BTC has only spent 3.4% of its time below this level (currently $ 23,400).
- (Orange curve) Realized price : This metric represents the average of all BTC traded prices. This portal generally provides support during the formation of the bottoms. BTC moved below this threshold only 14% of the time (currently $ 22,500).
- (Blue line) 200 week moving average: BTC was only below this threshold 1% of the time (currently ~ $ 22,400).
- (Purple curve) Delta Price: This metric shows the difference between the realized price and the historical average price. BTC did not close a day below this threshold set by the bun the closing end of the previous bear markets (currently $ 15,750).
Glassnode suggests that “Only 13 out of 4,360 trading days (0.2%) experienced circumstances similar to what we have today”. These points are marked in green on the graph below:
GN then tried to find out who sells its BTCs, and in particular whether the holders long-term throw in the towel, or not. We encourage you to read their report, which offers many very interesting graphs.
The conclusion is that the recent capitalization is almost entirely due to investors entering during the 2020-22 cycle. So it does not reflect the loss of deep conviction among very long time investors in bitcoin.
For GN, the bun. The question is if “It will be different this time”…
Let us complete this analysis on a chain with the history of pull down of BTC. an pullN represents the size of the drop from the final ATH. We are -73.3%, currently.
Bitcoin and geopolitics
The unipolar world is falling before our eyes in a massive energy crisis that will soon lead to a debt crisis and economic recession. According to Russian Parliament Deputy Speaker Piotr Tolstoi, the West should expect to see their standard of living “30% drop” :
“It’s you in the West who is in trouble to see things calm. On our side, we have time. We can warm up. As for our military capabilities, they are still there. Of course, we will suffer the sanctions, but we are less sensitive than you to the difficulties of everyday life. These difficulties are part of our history. They will not stop us from investing in our economy, developing our motorway and rail network and diverting our hydrocarbon exports to Asia. […] Do you know the consequence? Economic and political catastrophe in Europe and, over the next five years, a significant rise in energy prices, middle – class poverty and the end of your political elite. »
Vladimir Putin’s long speech last week in St. Petersburg was just as resolute, emphasizing end the dominance of the international monetary system by the United States.
Russian president blames West for ambient inflation, arguing “Western governments are financing unprecedented budget deficits through print money”. For him, there is no doubt that many developing nations will soon be rid of their dollars and euros whose value is melting like snow in the sun.
“World currency reserves amount to 7 trillion dollars and 2.5 trillion euros and these are currently depreciating at a rate of approximately 8% per annum” he launched. “These reserves may be confiscated or stolen at any time in the event of non-alignment with United States foreign policy.”
Same story during the fourteenth BRICS summit on 23 and 24 June. Xi Jinping confirmed his unconditional support for his Russian counterpart. Chinese president criticized “Expand military alliances” to make it clear that NATO and the United States are primarily responsible for the war in Ukraine.
The Grand Helmsman has warned that Western sanctions a “double weapon”. Vladimir Putin said for his part that he was studying the creation of a new global reserve currency based on the basket of currencies of the five nations.
This is not the first time this idea has been floated at the BRICS summit. The question is tricky. In fact, every nation wants to have a foreign exchange reserve with two basic characteristics:
- Liquidity: This currency must be able to be exchanged quickly in any other currency, without anyone being able to prevent it.
- Value store: Money needs to maintain its purchasing power over time.
However, this currency basket offered by BRICS may not be liquid if the West refuses to accept it as payment. It will be as centralized as the dollar. So the risk of freezing foreign exchange reserves is the same.
In addition, the currencies of the BRICS member states (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) show annual inflation rates of 12%, 17%, 7%, 2% and 6.5% respectively. That’s enough for a “treasure of value.”
The solution is called bitcoin. Stateless, bitcoin is the currency of the enemies. Without permission and with a steady supply of money, it has all the characteristics of a perfect international reserve currency.
Russia is well aware of this. The Russian president said in January that his country “Assets with my bitcoin”. BTC is now considered a “foreign currency” in Russia. Better yet, the chairman of the Duma ‘s lower house energy committee declared in March that he did not oppose bitcoin payments for Russian resources.
Faced with this force show, the G7, which ended yesterday in Bavaria, had the idea of limiting the energy prices they will pay for Russian oil… all oil exports, and even gas.
The G7 also plans to print $ 600 billion to fund China’s New Silk Roads project. In other words, the printing press is not finished turning, as it always was during war. The moral is that inflation is not about to stop …
Protecting yourself by investing in bitcoin has never been more urgent. And not in gold, which does not exist in a fixed quantity. A gold deposit containing more than 320,000 tonnes of gold has just been discovered in Uganda. That’s more than all the gold that came out of the earth from the beginning of mankind!
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Journalist reporting on the Bitcoin revolution. My papers deal with bitcoin through geopolitical, economic and libertarian prisms.