Consolidation or a new fall for Bitcoin?

Many indicators and analyzes of the chain of positive influence indicate that the market can be improved. For its part, technical analysis still raises the possibility that bitcoin will fall towards new lows for the year 2022.

Bitcoin below $21,000

On July 26, the price of bitcoin rose under $21,000erasing most of the gains accumulated the previous week and returning to the $23,300 to $18,500 range that Glassnode analysts describe as “week 30 high and low“. A handful of analysts and traders attribute the July 26-27 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and thealso expected from Federal Reserve rates as the main reasons for this fall.

Unless notified that the US economy does not go into recessiona few traders believe that the expected 75-100 basis point (BPS) rally will be followed by a rally that could see BTC, Ether (ETH) and other large cap altcoins. return to the top of its current rangeme. Of course, this feeling shows more speculation than solid analysisso you have to take it with a grain of salt.

Since BTC continues to trade in the same range it is i for 42 daysthe real question is whether the market will consolidate more or not another cycle of decline and potential capitalization

In their July 26 chain newsletter, Glassnode analysts say investors can get theirs “conviction by confluence” of multiple technical and on-chain metricswhich suggests that the The peak of surrender is long overdue. Rapid deleveraging has pushed many metrics into “massive statistical deviations” and, analysts say, the worst of the fall is probably behind us, Bitcoin price was expected to return to the high $20,000 area.

When compared to various long term and short term sellers indicators and indicators like the realized priceMayer’s multiple and the longer-term daily and weekly moving averages, Glassnode suggests that the confluence of indicators and historical data indicates increasing bullish momentum.

What does technical analysis tell us about this underlying potential?

From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin’s move to $24,200 indicated a brief breakout of the current range, fakeout somehow, but because of the inability to maintain this momentum we return to the hypothesis that new bottom bracket test in the middle of this range, near the 20-day moving average at $21,500.

According to independent market analyst Michaël van de Poppe, The holding area for BTC was $21,600. Below, the asset’s price action is dependent on this week’s FOMC comments.

The markets are correcting and $21.6K was the best to hold on to #Bitcoin.

That’s also a critical break now if it breaks to the upside -> new highs.

Looking at $20.5K-20.7K area to hold for #Bitcoin going into FOMC tomorrow.

If it is the case <100bps -> higher after. pic.twitter.com/tueXPNprza

— Michael van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) July 26, 2022

CryptoISO expressed a similar sentiment regarding the stock’s correlation with bitcoin and area importance $21,500 for BTC price.

Part of the longing of the 21.5k zone on BTC was confluence w support on NQ.

That is gone.

Trying to break out now but this looks like crap to be honest.

Selling before tomorrow is interesting though.

If you are bullish you want to see that but earnings are driving so far. pic.twitter.com/rh5d3wKgjG

— CryptoISO (@crypto_iso) July 26, 2022

Lovers of fractals he will note that the price in the current range is eerily similar to the fall 8 May-12 July and July 12, but analysts will be quick to point out that there are different bad news, for example the explosion on Voyager, Celsius and 3AC This decline played an important role, but today it does not seem so no black swan on the horizoneven if by this kind of definition Warnings of catastrophic events never…

Either way, it shows both periods 34 to 42 days of lateral consolidationand often, veteran trader Peter Brandt has identified the current market structure as “bearish rectangle”.

If the pattern breaks below the current range, this would add the price in the $14,500 area at 13$000 that some traders have coveted for a long time. Ultimately, the breakout of last week’s range at $24,200 on July 20 allowed for a breakout of the upper Bollinger Bands. Now that the price is below the BB midline, there is an increased chance that BTC will trade lower to lower bond which is at the bottom of the ranging from $24,200 to $18,600.

Trading within this range is not perceived as more of a concern than by observers. He will definitely take it wait for a catalog to run or hear it to know the next move. Maybe the results of large technology companies on July 27, the state of the market at the opening bell of the equity market and the comments from the FOMC will determine the direction bitcoin decides to take. Ethereum for its part is also weakening after significant gains over the past few days.

For more information on the current carrier market, find our latest article here.