A historical trend of Ethereum value per measure suggests that Ethereum could still correct 50%.
Ethereum: Is another 50% crash imminent?
The latest data from Glassnode shows that the price of ETH could fall yet another 50%. Background: “Value per transaction” is an indicator that measures the total value of Ethereum in a single blockchain measure.
The indicator was created at Permabull Nino. Their main goal: to model how blockchain efficiency in capturing value of data changes over time.
If the value of this indicator is high, it means that the cryptocurrency is currently capturing a large portion of value relative to a small data footprint.
Such value may indicate that the blockchain is very effective at the moment. On the other hand, a low value stored per measure indicates poor efficiency.
Here is a chart showing the trend of Ethereum value by measure over the last few years:
Looks like the value of the indicator has been falling over the last few weeks Source: Glassnode
In the graph above, the red, blue, and green lines are $ 5 bytes, $ 1 bytes, and $ 0.15 bytes, respectively.
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Historically, Ethereum has been at the bottom of the bear market whenever the network has reached $ 0.15 per transaction.
Similarly, the cryptocurrency peaked when the indicator landed at around $ 5 per measure (though not all peaks were around this level).
Recently, the value of the indicator has decreased. The ETH blockchain now stores about $ 0.30 per transaction.
Apparently, the indicator is currently twice the $ 0.15 floor, which seems to be historically tracked base.
This could indicate that Ethereum will continue to fall by up to 50% before finally taking off.
However, the Glassnode report notes that this is only true under the assumption that there is no fundamental improvement in how the network takes value.
Ethereum’s environment is very different today than it was a few years ago. For example, NFTs, DeFi and other modern infrastructure did not exist at that time.
Because of these factors, it is possible that the baseline for the value stored by the network is now higher. This suggests that the low may have come at a higher point than before.
Text credit: Bitcoinist
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