The adoption of bitcoin (BTC) could happen faster than the adoption of disruptive technologies in the past, such as automobiles and electric power, with 10% likely to reach global adoption by 2030, according to a new report.
In its report released Wednesday, Blockware Intelligence says it came to this prediction by examining the historical adoption curves of nine disruptive technologies in the past, including automobile, electric power, smartphones, the internet and social media, as well as the bitcoin adoption adoption rate. from 2009:
“Every disruptive technology follows a similar exponential S-curve pattern, but […] new network-based technologies continue to be adopted much faster than the market expects ”.
Using the weighted average of the historical technology adoption curves, as well as the growth rate of bitcoin adoption, the report was then able to arrive at its predictions.
Based on a metric known as Cumulative Sum for Net Entity Growth and the projected average annual growth rate of 60% for bitcoin, the report predicts that global bitcoin adoption will exceed 10% in 2030.
Blockware Intelligence is the research arm of Blockware Solutions, a bitcoin and blockchain mining infrastructure company, so you might expect it to be bullish when adopted.
The research unit said that it expects bitcoin adoption to saturate faster than many other disruptive technologies, given the direct monetary incentives for adoption, the current macro environment, and because it will accelerate Internet adoption growth.
“From a consumer perspective, there have been incentives for the adoption of technologies in the past in terms of convenience and efficiency: the adoption of the car allowed you to jump the horse and the buggy, the adoption of the mobile phone allowed you to make calls without be connected to a landline, ”the report explains:
“With bitcoin, money-driven direct adoption creates a game theory in which everyone’s best answer is to adopt bitcoin.”
Bitcoin, like the internet, smartphones, and social media, also benefit from the number of people who adopt the technology, known as the “network effect.”
“Example: if you were the only Twitter user, would that be worth it? It would not. The more users there are, the more valuable these technologies will be. ”
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However, the authors of the Blockware report emphasized that the model used to predict the adoption rate was only conceptual at this stage, adding that it is not intended to be used as investment advice or as a short – term trading tool, and that it is meant. continued screening:
“The general trend is clear; Global adoption of bitcoin is likely to increase significantly in the future, and so will the price ”.
The report and model have been reviewed by a number of cryptocurrency investors and analysts, including executives from Ark Invest, Arcane Assets, AMDAX Asset Management, and M31 Capital.
The adoption of cryptocurrency has increased rapidly in the last few years. In 2021, global cryptocurrency ownership rates averaged 3.9%, with more than 300 million cryptocurrency users worldwide, according to data from TripleA, a global cryptocurrency payment gateway.
Blockchain data platform Chainalysis last year showed that global adoption of bitcoin and cryptocurrency jumped 881% between July 2020 and June 2021. It found that Vietnam had the highest cryptocurrency adoption, leading the 154 countries analyzed, and India and the Pakistan later.
In April, a survey conducted by Gemini cryptocurrency exchange found that cryptocurrency adoption had risen sharply in 2021 in countries including India, Brazil and Hong Kong, as more than half of respondents in the 20 country surveyed that they started investing in cryptocurrencies in 2021.