A new study by Blockware compares the proliferation of Bitcoin with historical data from other technologies. The conclusion: Bitcoin spread has not yet reached its exponential growth phase.
Why Bitcoin will explode in the coming years
Bitcoin (BTC) is located at a very early stage of its spread. The data suggests that it will enter its exponential growth phase and be used 10% more by all by 2030. This is the result of an analysis of bitcoin proliferation by blockchain infrastructure and bitcoin mining company Blockware Solutions.
The report compares the current adoption rate of Bitcoin with historical data from other technologies, noting: Given the short history of Bitcoin and its current position on the prospective adoption chart, the potential boom in adoption may even faster than in other historical examples.
Why is that?
The curve S
An S-curve emerges when one summarizes the historical adoption rates of disruptive technologies such as cars, landline phones, tablets, mobile phones and smartphones, radio, electricity, internet and social media.
Innovators who make the first 2.5 adoption rates are entrepreneurs looking for the next best investment. The report on early adopters:
“These are very open people who are directly or indirectly involved with the innovators. Early adopters are often rigorously scrutinized and rejected by outsiders. “
The late stage of the majority is reached when technology becomes mainstream and when it is used in everyday objects. The last 10%, the laggards, refer to those who were, for example, lazy or in a position that made it impossible for them to adopt the new technology. If those people or entities also integrate the technology involved, the S-curve reaches its peak.
While the rates of adoption rates are the same for all disruptive technologies, the rate at which this cycle is advanced increases over time, finally, in the report. For example, it took 40 years on fixed line technology to reach the late majority stage, and the internet has done just that in 10 years.
Where does Bitcoin Stand?
In an attempt to properly quantify the bitcoin adoption rate, the report considers the number of new units ever seen in a transaction and their net growth.
Compared to the global population, the report estimates the current bitcoin adoption rate at 0.36%.
As far as the speed of spread is concerned, the chart shown above yields results. While the spread was relatively stagnant from 2009 to 2015, it accelerated exponentially from 2016 onwards.
Once the adoption rate reaches the stage where bitcoin becomes mainstream and used in everyday life, supply will peak. Acceptance rate and so on demand, on the other hand it will continue to increase in the coming years, although supply will remain unchanged.
Text credit: Cryptoslate
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