BTC is slightly down after its gains last week were mainly weighed down by declining volume.
The state of the market at the beginning of the week
Bitcoin started the week with udrop only 3% and with a volume below average. The cryptocurrency queen is down 51% since the beginning of the year. Coin dominance, an indicator that measures BTC’s market capitalization against the rest of the cryptocurrency market, stands at 42%, down from 40% on January 1st and 41.8% on April 1st.
In traditional markets, the S&P 500 fell 0.5%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.3%. The high-tech Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.4% on the day.
Enterprise software maker and major BTC holder MicroStrategy to release Tuesday its results for the second fiscal quarter. Analysts on average are expecting a loss of $7.27 per share, after a loss of $11.58 per share in the company’s fiscal first quarter, which ended June 30.
The 30-day correlation between the BTC and MicroStrategy stock is 0.85, which suggests that the stock price is strongly tied to BTC. The correlation coefficient varies between -1.0 and 1.0, with higher scores indicating a stronger relationship between assets.
The price ofEther (ETH) fell 4.5% on Monday, after rising 9% last week. Various altcoins also fell on Monday, with Polkadot (DOT) down 8.5% and Cosmos (ATOM) down 7%.
Bitcoin down a bit at the beginning of the week
After last week’s price movement, it is interesting to watch open interest in the options market for Bitcoin, compared to the strike price or the exercise price. Open interest by strike shows the number of orders to buy (calls) or sell options, or both, at different strike prices, and can provide insight into traders’ views on the fair value of BTC.
The most significant change in this measure from last week is a increased to $23,000 in put options purchased. Since put options represent the option but not the obligation to sell (for $23,000 in this case), they can be expressed as traders buying downside protection if prices exceed $23,000.
Open Interest for call options (ie the right but not the obligation to buy) remains the same higher at $25,000which can be expressed as the place where investors are optimistic ready to buy BTC.
The chart above can be viewed in the context of on-chain data showing the “realized price” of bitcoin. The realized price or realized price is the market capitalization realization of bitcoin divided by the current supply of bitcoins ; the realized market capitalization is based on the price of the shares when they were last traded.
The current realized price of BTC is $21,000. Lcryptocurrency is more than the realized price, having fallen below this level in June. If the realized price is exceeded, it means that more BTC investors have become profitable. The more investors there are in the lock, the greater the price level to serve as additional support.
There is provision of “with youidle ok”. The number of bitcoins that have not changed hands in over 10 years continues to rise. Some of these assets may have been lost entirely, but some investors they don’t seem to have any intention of selling them.
To set the context, the 2.5 million sleeping tokens in a cold wallet more than the current 2.4 million BTC on each exchange.
From a macroeconomic perspective, things will be relatively calm to start the week, although on Monday the Institute for Supply Management released a survey showing that the US manufacturing slowed in June. Construction spending fell 1.1% in June from May, which is below estimates. The PMI, however, beat estimates with a reading of 52.8. An index of more than 50 indicates that the The manufacturing sector is expandingand an index below 50 indicates that the manufacturing sector is contracting.
Perhaps the rest of the week will show us the direction Bitcoin and the market will take in the future.
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