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Bitcoin risks falling to $15,000 if this threshold is passed

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A new week is starting for Bitcoin, but everything indicates that the situation will not change much for the cryptocurrency, which remains mired in a phase of uncertainty, and shows an underlying trend that makes a further decline more likely than not sustainable. rebound.

In particular, the daily chart shows that the price of Bitcoin remains locked in a narrow range between $19,500 and $20,500 since August 27, an extremely low volatility given the evolution of the cryptocurrency in recent months, and which confirms the primary importance of the currency. $20,000 threshold that plays a central role in the middle of the current BTC/USD range.

What are the thresholds to monitor to trade Bitcoin well this week?

In case of exit from the top of the current range, it should be noted that Bitcoin will face some important obstacles. First, the cryptocurrency will have to cross the $22,000 zone that has served as support or resistance several times in recent months.

Bitcoin - Daily chart

Then the 50 and 100 day moving averages, currently at $22,260 and $22,840, will be applied before the next clearly identified chart resistance of $25,000.

If, on the contrary, Bitcoin escapes from its range from below and continues to fall, the psychological thresholds of $19,000 and $18,000, as well as this year’s low of $17,600 will be the first possible supports which will be taken into account.

Below this final threshold, no further support can be seen before the $15,000 threshold, which has not been reached since November 2020, a target that corresponds to a drop of around 25% at current prices.

If we look at the graphic context of Bitcoin in the short term, for example on the 4-hour chart, we see that the recent price variations of Bitcoin are like a triangle, which confirms the uncertainty observed on the daily chart.

Moreover, the RSI indicator (Relative Strength Index), which is currently at 44 points, close to its neutral zone, is not sending any concrete signal for today, which insists on the maintenance of the range on Bitcoin.

A busy week awaits Bitcoin from a fundamental perspective

Apart from the technical background, investors practicing Bitcoin trading will have to consider several economic events this week. In fact, we will expect the preliminary Q2 GDP of the eurozone on Wednesday, and Thursday will be the occasion of the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting.

In this regard, it should be noted that the many hawkish comments from various members of the ECB in recent weeks have encouraged the market to now predict a ECB rate hike of 0.75% for this week, which could weigh on Bitcoin if this is confirmed. .

As far as the Fed is concerned, some interventions from members of the central bank, including its chairman Jerome Powell, are also expected this week, which could also affect Bitcoin, through expectations for the first another meeting of the Fed.

In fact, the increase in the rates of the major central banks, whether the Fed or the ECB, is to be considered as a bearish factor for Bitcoin, since it increases the returns of risk-free investments, reducing its comparative attractiveness of risk investments. , and borrowing funds to invest in speculative assets such as Bitcoin is riskier.

In summary, the context of the Bitcoin chart is therefore very uncertain at the beginning of this week, but the busy economic program of the coming days could change things and offer interesting Bitcoin trading opportunities in one direction or another!


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