Bitcoin quiet during the holidays

Bitcoin quiet during the holidays

On this Wednesday, August 24, 2022, bitcoin, like many of us, is on vacation. Little movement other than a drop of more than 10% occurred on August 19th. Inflation and the macroeconomic context continue to play a strong role in this concern. Despite everything, bitcoin preserves its support of $ 20,000 and ETH is over 100% of its low point of $ 800. We start right away with the 360 ​​point of bitcoin of this week. I will try to be as complete as possible, by sharing my feelings on the market. Good read!

Means forbidden

The $20,000 area is very interesting. It marks the top of the 2017 market and this price is a support with strong momentum. However, the green candles are difficult to detect and a simple red candle can eliminate many of them.

Bitcoin during the week

Risk-time market

Always seems to be on the market risk off, which means stronger assets such as bonds are preferable given the situation we are in. Banks have never had as much cash in reserve as they do today, and this reflects the risk appetite of the big players.

Bitcoin daily

End of the holidays without too much volatility

When we zoom in to a time unit of 1 hour, we can see that bitcoin is moving within a price range between $20,800 and $21,700.

Bitcoin in 1 hour

Seasonality makes assets less volatile during this period. Back to school in September is historically bearish, and has been one of the worst months for the stock market since 1900.

Before predicting a rise or fall, it will be necessary to wait for this release tidy which could guide us on the way forward in the coming weeks or months.

Personally, purchases below this tidy and sales at the top is an adequate strategy, in the sense that the stop-loss defined and allows limited loss for slightly larger gains.

Control lever

The ratio of Open Interest, open Bitcoin futures, continues to climb. Open interest is data published daily by the stock exchange. There can be a lot of information about an emerging or weakening trend. Open Interest is the total number of open contracts at the end of the trading day.

Bitcoin open interest

A strong OI (Open Interest) indicates that the open interest is large relative to the size of the Bitcoin market, which increases the risk of squeeze long or short. There are many open contracts, especially long ones. Therefore, in the event of a decline, the protective stop losses could jump, and therefore accelerate the decline even more.

However, in this exact case, the Open Interest is not disproportionate, it follows the price without creating variation. the funded is also neutral, indicating that some buyers are equal to the seller. From a technical point of view, the layers The proof is.

Worrying economic situation in China

I am not without telling you that the real estate situation in China is very worrying. BlackRock and UBS are among the funds reducing their exposure to Chinese real estate. Other companies such as HSBC, PIMCO and Fidelity also reduced their positions during the first half.
Asia’s biggest high-yield bond funds are clearly targeting China’s property sector as a debt-fuelled liquidity crisis deepens, according to research firm Morningstar Inc.

The average weighting of Chinese real estate bonds in Asian high-yield funds fell to 16% in June, from nearly 28% at the end of last year; as the crackdown on lending and the decline in home sales continues in the sector.

Funds from global asset managers BlackRock Inc, Fidelity International Ltd, HSBC Holdings Plc, Pacific Investment Management Co and UBS Group AG posted double-digit losses through the end of July, according to the report. BlackRock’s high-yield fund cut its real estate exposure by nearly half in June compared to December, to about 15% of the portfolio. PIMCO reduced it from 22% to 12%.

Meanwhile, fund managers are looking for high-yielding stocks from India and Southeast Asia as alternatives.

Fund managers have largely written off Evergrande Group, once Asia’s most actively traded high-yield bond before it defaulted last year. Evergrande represents 0.14% of BlackRock’s fund. PIMCO still holds four Evergrande bonds, which represent 0.23% of the portfolio, according to Morningstar.

That’s it for today’s article. I tried to cover as many points as possible and do more on the traditional market leading cryptos. talk about italtcoins here that makes a lot less sense than macro analysis to me.

Finally, I get numerous questions asked on the site where I analyze my values. Personally, and for several years, I have been using TradingView, an intuitive interface with many tools and a wide selection of assets. It is clearly the most advanced and widely used interface on the market.

This is the end of this analysis, feel free to give me feedback on my Twitter account @0xakin. Don’t be too fat, take profits regularly, be successful money management for your trades and depending on your initial plan. Only invest what you can afford to lose as long as it doesn’t affect your morale too much. Have a great week everyone, and I’ll see you next week for a new analysis!

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I am passionate about technical analysis and technology, I have been enthusiastically following cryptocurrencies since 2017. Besides trading and investing, I want to democratize, in my own way, the ecosystem that will undoubtedly change our habits tomorrow!

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