Bitcoin price ended its long sideways movement around $19,000 and the price has risen sharply since yesterday. Bitcoin is currently trading above $20,500 and could be on the verge of a much bigger price jump that could drive all the bears away. kryptoszene.de explains what has to happen to this.
In the last 24 hours, the price of bitcoin has increased by about 7 percent. This is the strongest gain since the beginning of September 2022, when BTC/USD climbed from around $18,500 to almost $23,000 within a few days. So Bitcoin has crossed the $20,000 mark again and it gives hope to all BTC buyers that the bulls are finally gaining strength and the long dry spell in the price is coming to an end.
Has Bitcoin Seen The Bottom?
However, since the summer of this year, Bitcoin has briefly risen above $20,000 and even made it to $25,000 in a small bear market rally in August 2022. Many bulls were already trying to end the bear market . But none of these small outbreaks have so far been sustainable. The bears brought Bitcoin back several times towards $19,000. However, it is positive that Bitcoin has not made a lower low in recent weeks so there is a possibility of a bear market bottoming out at around $17,700 on June 18th.
But what suggests that the price of Bitcoin may continue to rise? The technical analysis shows some interesting clues.
The daily chart shows that Bitcoin is trying to return to a large symmetrical triangle from which BTC/USD broke on September 18. Now, if Bitcoin breaks the new resistance zone at $21,000, it would be a very supportive sign and would suggest that the correction was just a fake out.
Bitcoin chart pattern: 32 percent price jump possible
By the end of the month, Bitcoin will have to decide which direction to exit this neutral technical probability pattern. In any case, an extremely volatile movement is expected towards the end of the month.
The technical price target of the pattern is predicting a price change of more than 32 percent in the price of Bitcoin. If Bitcoin breaks to the upside, the price target is around $28,000. On the other hand, if there is a bearish correction, Bitcoin could fall to $12,500.
On the way to $ 28,000, however, there are still a few more obstacles in front of the Bitcoin course. So in the $21,000, $23,000 and between $24,000 and $25,000 range there is a lot of trading and some short positions. Bitcoin would have to liquidate all these positions and break through all the resistance to reach the bullish price target.
Bearish Case: Bitcoin between $11,000 and $12,000
Until bitcoin price fails to surpass the August 15 high of $25,200, a bearish double top or M pattern scenario remains in place. Here, the bearish price target would be worth $11,250.
On the other hand, the path down to the symmetric triangle price target of $12,500 provides much less resistance for the bears. If the $19,000 support falls as well as the annual low of $17,700, things could happen very quickly and Bitcoin could possibly crash to the price target within one or two bearish daily candles. Because there is not much significant trading volume that could support the price of BTC.
Bitcoin analysts expect high volatility
Some analysts believe that the Bitcoin price will only crash to the bearish price target in a very quick move and then immediately start a steep climb with an extremely bullish candle. From a game theory perspective, this could be a good way to liquidate any long positions in the market that Bitcoin is currently expected to stay below $17,700.
Bitcoin bulls should remember that the BTC/USD market structure remains dominant over the broader time frame and have a legitimate expectation of a bullish reversal. Because if you look at the current increase in more detail, it seems almost marginal given the all-time high of $69,000. Bitcoin is still trading 70 percent below its optimal value.
YouTuber MMCrypto predicts bottom with indicator
What other technical indicators help the price forecast for Bitcoin? A very interesting, very rare indicator used by analysts is the 350 DMA, which describes the moving average price over the last 350 days (see chart above).
Crypto influencer MM Krypto drew attention to this recently in a YouTube video, which he had already mentioned in the last 2018 bear market. Bitcoin history shows that in the past the bottom of the market was always reached when the price touched the lowest line (shown here in gray). This is exactly the line Bitcoin price touched on June 18, when it hit its year to date low. If Bitcoin follows its chart history, this would make a strong argument that BTC/USD has already seen a bottom.
Death Cross in January: Bitcoin crashed 63 percent
But there are also indicators that suggest Bitcoin is still far from a new bull market. One is the moving average of the past 20 weeks and the past 50 weeks (see chart below). As long as the line drawn in green here is at the top, the price of Bitcoin is usually in a bull market, as the price of 2021 shows. On the other hand, when the red line is up, it indicates that the bears have the upper hand.
In this context, analysts like to use the Golden Cross and the Death Cross for trend forecasting. A golden cross occurs when the green line crosses the red line from top to bottom. The Death Cross represents the opposite situation, when the red line rises above the green line from below.
Year-end Golden Cross And the other 600 percent?
In fact, the Bitcoin chart shows that BTC/USD went on a steep slide after the January 2022 death cross and since that sell signal the price has fallen 63 percent. On the other hand, the bullish golden cross was last seen before the 2020 bull market. The signal was followed by a 600 percent rally in Bitcoin.
Currently, the two moving average price lines are still quite far apart, so the next golden cross is still far away. However, the red line is falling very sharply, while the green line is moving almost sideways. If this trend continues, the bullish Golden Cross could still be seen in 2022.