Terra (LUNA) has been repeatedly cited as the main source of weakness in cryptocurrencies. However, the current shaving market is much more likely to be driven by a combination of factors.
Just as the market was rocky at the Terra saga, the two – year mark for the next half for bitcoins (BTC) was also crossed and is a metric used by some analysts as an indicator of the end of the bull market.
As shown in the chart above, previous cycles saw the peak of BTC followed by a price decline that first broke below the 50-day moving average (MA) and then high capitalization pushed the price below the MA 200- day.
Many traders were confused by the lack of a large finale in the last round of the bull market, because this phenomenon is usually marked by the last phase of the emerging trend.
Traders also questioned the validity of the popular stock-to-flow model after BTC failed to reach $ 100,000 before the end of 2021.
In previous market cycles, BTC traded much higher than the S2F pattern at this point in its advance, with a positive pattern divergence. Currently, the model variance gives a reading of -0.86 although the BTC price is well below the S2F line.
The lack of a high breakout has prompted some traders to stick to previous calls for a final price rally that will see BTC reach $ 100,000 before entering an expanded bear market, but that remains to be seen.
Looking forward to being in your heart after this wave of over 100k I hope to end. If you see the current view during mid – cycle corrections, the correction that corrects the entire bull cycle from 3k to 100k + will be absolutely brutal. $ BTC
– CrediBULL Crypto (05.27) (@CredibleCrypto) May 17, 2022
I can’t wait for us to get back to the downtrend as after that I expect the following wave to end above $ 100,000. If you see the current view during mid-cycle corrections, the correction that corrects the full up cycle from 3k to 100k + will be absolutely brutal. $ BTC. – CrediBULL Crypto (05.27) (@CredibleCrypto) May 17, 2022.
Maybe the market will bottom out in November?
While some are still expecting a last reversal before the bear market actually succeeds, a more bleak scene predicts that prices will fall another two months before the market ends.
Based on previous cycles, the market bottom came about 13 months after the top of the market, suggesting a bottom around December this year if the current trend continues.
This hypothesis is confirmed if we consider the time that passes between the bottom of the market and the next half of bitcoin.
In previous cycles, each low cycle was reached approximately 17-18 months before the next half. Another half of BTC is expected to take place on May 5, 2024, suggesting that the market will be consumed in November or December 2022.
See also: Bitcoin is selling close to its “realized” price, but analysts believe there is still room for a sharp decline
Traders remained as permabulls despite the current price action
When it comes to price forecasts, the consensus is much lower about this due to BTC’s underperformance over the last cycle in which most traders were expecting $ 100,000.
Traders continue to predict that BTC will break the $ 100,000 mark in the near future and a handful are meeting the semifinal target of $ 1 million.
A general range of potential prices represented by LookIntoBitcoins price forecasting tool suggests a BTC high of $ 238,298, while the Delta Top indicator shows a high of $ 119,886. The Terminal Price Indicator is currently forecasting a set high at $ 107,801.
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