The Bitcoin course is still in deep water. After BTC/USD crashed to around $15,500 following the FTX scandal, there is currently no bullish trend reversal. At the time of publication, the major currency was trading at around $16,500, not far below last week’s low for the year. Several attempts to sustainably break the $17,000 and $18,000 levels have so far been unsuccessful.
Bitcoin cannot follow the stock market
The better inflation figures from the US could do little to reverse Bitcoin’s weakness. Although there was a brief rise above USD 18,000, the next sell-off followed shortly after. BTC price therefore cannot follow the US stock markets, which recorded a strong upward trend following the fall in the inflation rate in the United States. For example, the US stock index S&P 500, in which the most valuable listed companies in the US are listed, has recently increased significantly.
This is Enron’s moment for this new industry. The role of Regulators & Congress is to determine what constitutes a digital asset, a means of exchange, and bring clarity to this space so we can provide legitimate money and consumer protection.@PatrickMcHenry pic.twitter.com/f5rtNdKTIZ
— Michael Saylor⚡️ (@saylor) November 17, 2022
From a low of around 3490 points, the stock index returned to the $4,000 mark within a month and was even able to surpass it for a short while. So, while there was a gain of about 15 percent within a month, BTC lost more than 15 percent in value in the same period. This shows how much the crypto market suffered due to the scandal involving the crypto exchange FTX. In fact, over the past few months, there has been a very high correlation between the price of Bitcoin and US stock prices. This is broken, at least for the moment.
Can Bitcoin be decoupled?
The signs for Bitcoin’s further trend do not necessarily look good. If Bitcoin shows such weakness even when share prices are rising, it can be assumed that the downward trend could pick up speed as soon as share prices fall again. Unless Bitcoin manages to free itself from its drag and, in the best case, even rise faster than the stock markets.
Most analysts currently consider the case for Bitcoin price decoupling from the traditional markets to be unlikely – especially given the signs. But the price of BTC will really continue to fall. Is a short Bitcoin site still worth it? And what alternatives to buying Bitcoin might be interesting?
Gold with a strong price increase
Well-known investor Michael Burry, who saw the US financial crisis coming in 2008, which was later adapted into the Hollywood film The Big Short, is currently predicting that it could be a good time to invest in gold amid the crisis in the crypto markets. Buy. Burry explained on Twitter that the time had come for gold as the crypto scandals continued to spread.
In fact, the current gold chart shows that the value of the precious metal has risen significantly over the past few days. The price of gold is around 1,760 dollars per troy ounce. Just 2 weeks ago and so before the FTX scandal, gold was approaching the $1600 mark. Since then, the value has increased by almost 10 percent. This is the basis of Burry’s thesis that gold can take advantage of the weakness of “digital gold”, as Bitcoin is also known.
Gold still well below USD 2000
But how sustainable will this increase in the price of gold be? The daily gold price chart shows that although the momentum is positive, gold is still going down even on the longer time frame. Gold prices reached around 2060 dollars in March of this year and, despite the current trend, it has still recorded significant losses in the last few months.
From a technical point of view, there is also a bearish scenario for the price of gold. Because the high rate from March 2022 could not exceed the highest price from August 2020. With that, the price of gold has formed a possible double top pattern, which describes an extremely bearish trend reversal that is starting a major correction.
However, for this scenario to be valid, gold must sustainably break through the support zone at around $1,680 and confirm it as a new resistance zone by retesting. Although gold slipped below this level in recent months, the downturn failed to gain further strength and gold has since supported the resistance zone. Therefore it could be a fake-out too.
Gold could crash to $1,300
A corrective technical price target could bring gold back to prices below $1,300. That would be a price region where gold was last in 2019. However, if gold prices continue their current rise, this scenario may not materialize and gold may attempt a new to break the highest level around $2060 in the coming months. It is only when gold breaks the old high from 2020 and is confirmed as new support by a retracement that the bearish scenario can be added to the table. This should lead to a sharp rise in the price of gold, since there is no additional historical resistance for gold above the mentioned marks.
Bullish scenario: Bitcoin soon back at USD 19,000
It’s hard to prove how Bitcoin’s weakness adds to gold’s strength. However, some investors have likely sold cryptocurrencies due to the FTX events and the price drop, and may switch to gold as there is less volatility.
However, the former CEO of MicroStrategy Michael Saylor, who is a major investor in Bitcoin, fears that regulators may act much more aggressively against the crypto market than before, due to the current scandals, and b innovation might be delayed. However, he sees Bitcoin more as a beneficiary of such development, since some investors may consider the oldest store of value in the crypto world and run after a less hyped project.
However, it is not a foregone conclusion whether buying gold is the best solution in the short term and whether a short Bitcoin position could be worthwhile. Bitcoin has often had a strong trend when no one expected it. A symmetrical triangle is currently visible on the hourly chart of BTC/USD, heralding the next strong price move. On a breakout to the upside, Bitcoin is likely to return to the $19,000 area soon. Another correction, on the other hand, could take BTC to a new yearly low of $14,000.
Another option: Buy D2T tokens
The new Dash 2 Trade platform provides clients with important trading signals, crypto news and other indicators. The token is still in pre-sale before being regularly listed on a trading exchange. This gives early investors the advantage of getting D2T tokens very cheaply. D2T can be purchased in advance for $0.051.