Bitcoin price forecast: BTC / USD falling cheap – crash to $ 12,500 possible?

Bitcoin price forecast: BTC / USD falling cheap - crash to $ 12,500 possible?

The fear is related to the crypto market. The Fear and Saint Index, which measures market sentiment among investors, is currently declining significantly. The value is 11 out of 100, which corresponds to “extreme fear”. It does not seem to be far to the full low point. Yesterday, the tension among investors was slightly lower at 18 points. For comparison: In the 2021 bull market, the pendulum was much higher up to extreme greed.

There is good reason for the great concern among investors about an even bigger crash. U.S. stock exchanges are also undergoing a sharp correction. The important Nasdaq Composite, which lists more than 3,000 companies, has lost nearly 24 percent in the past 6 months. For the stock market, which is much less volatile than the crypto market, this amounts to a landslide.

Bitcoin dependent on US exchanges?

You have to look back on 2020 to see that the US stock market was at lower levels than it is now. And the price of Bitcoin has shown a strong correlation with U.S. stock exchanges in recent months. Bitcoin’s 1: 1 course seems to react to what US markets tell it.

The war in Ukraine is, of course, the cause of great uncertainty in the markets. Investors, on the other hand, are worried about the historically high inflation and the turnaround in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve, which raised interest rates by another 0.5 percent last week. At the same time, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell agreed with the markets that the turnaround in interest rates needed to be much stronger to keep inflation under control. It is likely, therefore, that rates will rise again this year.

However, rising interest rates are nothing but beneficial for the stock and crypto markets. Because they drive investors from buying stocks or investments risk in cryptocurrencies and into supposedly safe investments such as FIAT (e.g. dollars) and bank accounts, which can lure investors back with interest promises.


After the small lie over the past trading week, ie Bitcoin was able to rise to $ 40,000 just after the Fed’s interest rate was determined, the price has already dropped to around $ 33,000 at the time of publication. That’s minus almost 20 percent in a few days. Since reaching an all-time high in November 2021, BTC / USD has already lost more than half its value. Prior to determining the interest rate, indicated that another strong correction could be made. Now the same thing has happened.

But where does this correction end? Are investors well below $ 30,000 for another steep slip? Can bitcoin even fall below $ 20,000? Or maybe the bottom has already been reached and there is an opportunity to buy Bitcoin? The chart analysis reveals some interesting scenarios for the Bitcoin course.

Best case scenario: Bitcoin is already upside down

Is there a possibility that Bitcoin is really grounded and that the reversal of the trend is imminent? Yes, chart analysis shows that there is at least a small chance of this scenario.

Because the price of Bitcoin reached a low of $ 33,000 on January 24 in the major correctional movement at the beginning of the year. So, if BTC / USD is at the current level, Bitcoin could create a bullish double bottom from this level. For this, however, it is imperative that Bitcoin has $ 33,000, or this scenario will no longer be valid.

trade outlook

In the second step, Bitcoin would then have to cross the neck of this potential W form at $ 48,000 and declare it as a new support. In this case, the bullish price target is $ 63,000, 90 percent well above the current rate. This is certainly the best case scenario for investors in the current scenario. However, there is still a long way to go and this option seems rather unlikely given the mood of the current market.

Scenario 2: Bitcoin reverses a trend at $ 29,000 to $ 31,000

If the price of Bitcoin cannot hold $ 33,000, all hope is not lost that the bulls will not report soon. There is more massive support for BTC / USD in the $ 29,000 to $ 31,000 range. Because of these levels Bitcoin got its bottom in the summer of 2021 after the first bull run up to $ 65,000 in April.

trade outlook

The support of around $ 30,000 should also be a strong obstacle for the bears, as this is where large institutional investors such as Michael Saylor with MicroStrategy and Elon Musk with Tesla have average Bitcoin purchase prices. And we are talking about investments in the billion dollar range. If Bitcoin actually fell below this threshold, these corporations would be in the red, which could turn the overall investment strategy of the corporations on its head and panic its shareholders. MicroStrategy in particular has invested a very large amount of capital in BTC in terms of its market value.

Investors will certainly try to avoid crashing below their entry prices. They may buy huge amounts of Bitcoin in the $ 30,000 price range to support the price.

Scenario 3: Bitcoin crashes much deeper

The whole horror scenario for all Bitcoin buyers could come to an end if BTC is not able to hold this support either. Because the price target is not technical, the recently formed Bitcoin course flag will bear only $ 12,500. That was another correction more than 60 percent from current levels. In this worst case scenario, Bitcoin would reach the level of the 2020/2021 bull market.

trade outlook

However, a support mark is important before that. We’re talking about the 200 Weekly Cars Average. This moving average was an area where Bitcoin has been regularly supported in bear markets in the past. And that 200 WMA is currently at just under $ 22,000. However, until Bitcoin reaches these levels, the line could continue to climb higher. Support at this level would be the ultimate hope for all bulls.

Buy the dip? Lucky Block for only $ 0.0011

Signs of lucky block
If Bitcoin is $ 33,000, a great floating – purchase option may now be present. In this case, this also applies to Altcoins. For example, Lucky Block Tokens can currently be purchased for only $ 0.0011. This could be a great opportunity to buy the cheap online lottery coin at a bargain price if there is an early reversal of a trend in the markets.

Lucky Block can be purchased in several steps:

Step 1: Altcoins required first, can be exchanged later for LBLOCK. A good way to do this is to buy BNB on the eToro exchange.

Step 2: The purchased altcoins can be immediately transferred to your own wallet. On the decentralized PancakeSwap exchange, a signal such as BNB can then be easily exchanged on LBLOCK. Different wallets can be linked to PancakeSwap. Alternatively, you can purchase the coins right now on the LBLOCK website.

Step 4: After that, the buyer can decide how much BNB they want to exchange for Lucky Block Tokens. The exchange takes place at the current market price.

Step 5: This completes the purchase of Lucky Block Tokens and the LBLOCK can be transferred back to your own wallet.

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