Bitcoin (BTC) market behavior is still not the same as the previous bearish market lows, says one of the leading cryptocurrency analysts.
I thread on Twitterr on September 14, statistician Willy Woo, creator of the Woobull data resource, Free three examples of the reasons why the BTC/USD pair should fall more.
While many called the price of bitcoin a new macroeconomic low when it hit $17,600 in June, not everyone is convinced that bitcoin will avoid a retest.
For Woo, there’s still reason to believe that lower levels will mark the new price floor — and it could be anywhere, including below $10,000.
“Submarine” supply does not reach floor area
One of Woo’s metrics reports is the percentage of total BTC supply held at a loss – the rate at which BTC is now worth less than the price it was last sold at.
In previous bear markets, price declines were more than 60% underwater.
“In terms of peak pain, the market has not felt the same pain as the previous lows,” he warned, along with a chart from the chain analysis firm Glassnode.
According to this chart, 52% of the supply is currently at a loss, and to reach the 60% mark, the BTC/USD pair would have to fall to just $9,600.
Woo added that at the bottom of previous bitcoin bear markets, the losing bid had broken “cleanly” through a long-term trend, which had not yet happened this time.
The cost base is approaching the target area
Another sign of the decline of the bitcoin market is the composition of the investor base – long-term (LTH) and short-term (STH) holders.
Generally, at the lowest end, STHs have a lower base cost than LTHs. This means that STHs paid less for their coins than LTHs, the latter being defined as those that have traded BTC for 155 days or more.
“We’re close, but we’re not there yet. There is still time to burn IMO,” Woo said.
Previously, David Puell, creator of the Puell Multiple indicator, highlighted cost basis differences as an “interesting” factor for analysts to consider.
Accumulation is not “synonymous” with history
Finally, hosts, big and small, still need to do more, according to Woo.
Also Read: BTC Price Sticks To $20,000 As US Stocks Lose The Equivalent Of 4 Bitcoin Market Caps
Along with Glassnode’s graph of bear market accumulation trends, he noted that in 2022, BTC did not flow from sellers to “rush” buyers at a rate comparable to before.
“So far, we haven’t seen the levels of accumulation that are implied by earlier lows,” he explained.
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