Bitcoin, monthly technical close under very close watch

Bitcoin, une clôture technique mensuelle sous très haute surveillance

The second half of June saw a reversal of upward momentum from the March banking crisis, but failed to break out the resistance at $31,000. Driven by inflows into the existing major bitcoin ETFs and the prospects for new ETFs to become available in the coming months, will the price of bitcoin succeed in posting a new annual high?

Definitive monthly closing

Since the beginning of May, the price of bitcoin has been taking a gradual upward trend the major support between $24,000 and $25,000. This has been identified as the graphical boundary between the bullish and bearish scenarios. This recognition was rightly made as the market offered a powerful payback, like a textbook chart case.

Moreover, rebound perhaps too perfect to be believableespecially since the altcoins are not following and the permabears are aggressively trying to short this return to $31,000.

But in the history of BTC, bull markets have always started with a number one outperformance and increasing dominance, before several months later, the troops set out to follow General BTC.

It is true that the global-macro context remains very complex, with underlying inflation still far too resilient in Europe and the United States. This has constrained the major Western Central Banks to maintain very tight monetary conditions.

What doesn’t worry me is that the big bull markets always stem from fear, from fear of an underlying context that is still very difficult. A Recent Bullish Impulse was carried by the Crypto Major through a concrete inflow of the main existing Bitcoin ETF funds as well as huge news about the launch of new BTC ETFs from issuers who are leaders in global finance.

Ultimately, the annual upward movement in the price of bitcoin maintains its well-constructed aspect on a technical level and still shows an increase of more than 80% since the beginning of the year. On these graphic features, I invite you to watch very closely the new monthly close that will be completed this Friday, June 30 for the BTC.

If the market manages to hold around $29,000 or $30,000 after the US inflation release (PCE price index, Friday 2:30 pm), then the monthly chart update will be binding to continue the medium and long-term trend.

A chart made with the TradingView site that reveals the Japanese candles in bitcoin monthly price data with a logarithmic scale

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Technical analysis makes two assumptions on short-term charts

Let’s now return to the short-term technical analysis of bitcoin price it breaks below the resistance at $31,000, the peak of the banking crisis in March. Two chart hypotheses seem possible to me:

  • A sideways transition sequence around $30,000 before trying to break out the resistance at $31,000 and targeting the next target of $33,000;
  • A towards $28,500 before resuming resistance.

Invalidation of the underlying support would involve a break of the support at $28,500creating a double top risk and return of at least $25,000.

A chart made with the TradingView site that reveals the weekly and daily Japanese candles on the price of bitcoin

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