Bitcoin (BTC) is on track for its worst August performance since the 2015 bear market – and next month could be even worse.
Data from the chain analysis platform Coinglass shows that the BTC/USD pair has not had such an August month in seven years.
September is synonymous with average losses of 5.9% on BTC price
After two big drops in BTC price in recent weeks, bitcoin owners are understandably scared – but historically September has performed even worse than August.
At $20,000, the BTC/USD pair is down 14% this month, making August the biggest loser since 2015, when the pair posted a monthly red candle of 18.67%.
The following years have proven that August can be mixed when it comes to BTC price performance – in 2017, for example, the largest cryptocurrency gained over 65% in an all-time bullish high.
It is September, however, when no one doubts the likely direction of the price. Already famous as a “red” month for bitcoin, the average losses since Coinglass started recording in 2013 were almost 6%.
Historically September Downmeath
—Trader_J (@Trader_Jibon) August 26, 2022
Historically, September is a down month. “September”
— Trader_J (@Trader_Jibon) August 26, 2022
This time, macroeconomic instability meets a tradition of leading to gloomy forecasts from analysts.
“The stock market in general is not looking good right now, so this drop in $BTC is a reflection of that,” abstract trader Josh Rager as bitcoin threatens the $20,000 support.
“In general, September is historically not a great month. A decline here could turn into a buying opportunity for the following months. I will be a long-term one-time buyer at prices under $20,000.”
Rager was continuing a debate about the likelihood of selling bitcoins from the Mt. Gox en masse by creditors who will receive them after an eight-year wait. As Cointelegraph reports, many believe that such an event will not happen as fears to the contrary are unfounded.
The monthly chart is “very ugly”
For the monthly close, nervous commentators focused on whether bitcoin could avoid a monthly candle that ends below $20,000.
Also read: Why September is shaping up to be a potentially lousy month for bitcoin price
If not, the BTC/USD pair would compete with June in low terms not seen on the chart since late 2020.
Even worse, such an event could trigger a snowball selloff, Galaxy Trading warned its Twitter followers over the weekend.
“On monthly IT, things look ugly,” he said. writing the same day.
“If the monthly candle closes below $20,000 in 3 days, it could trigger a major selloff to at least $14,000 when the next major support is located. The reason is that the close below $19,900 means a bearish engulfing candle which is really bad in big IT”.
A move below $20,000 would substantially break a pivot zone that has been in place since the first move above this level in 2020, notes Cubic Analytics senior market analyst Caleb Franzen.
“Bitcoin looks set to retrace deeper into the main pivot zone, which was identified using the monthly peak and close of December 2017. and attempted to serve as support in 2022,” he said. Explain under the monthly chart.
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