Bitcoin is at risk of another crash - even below $17,700

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Analysis of the chain suggests that the price of bitcoin may fall below the local minimum of $ 17,700 hit in June.

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Public finance defines a bear market as a period of sustained price decline in which the price of an asset falls 20% or more from its most recent highs.

Notice

There is no single definition of a crypto bearer market. However, since digital assets are highly volatile, the argument is made that the percentage drop by which a crypto bear market is determined should be around -40%, perhaps -60%.

However, the market is down about -74% from its ten-month peak. There is no doubt that Bitcoin is in a crypto bear market.

For example, on June 18, BTC recorded a local bottom of $17,700, closing below the previous cycle high for the first time in its history. Some analysts refer to this as the bottom of the market cycle. However, analysis of multiple chain metrics suggests otherwise.

How many bitcoin addresses are in profit?

Bitcoin Address Profit Percentage refers to the proportion of unique addresses whose funds have an average purchase price that is below the current price.

In this case, the “purchase price” is defined as the price at the time of signal transfer to address. At each bottom of the cycle so far, 50% or less of bitcoin addresses have been lost.

The graph below shows a present value of about 58%. This indicates that the price of BTC is yet to fall further.

Bitcoin Addresses Percentage in Profit, Source: Glassnode.com

Market Value to Realized Value – what does that mean?

Market Value to Realized Value Ratio (MVRV) refers to the ratio between market capitalization (or market value) and realized capitalization (or stored value). By compiling this information, the MVRV shows when the price of Bitcoin is trading above or below “fair value”.

At the same time, by comparing long-term and short-term MVRV, the capitalization of long-term holders can be assessed.

The Long-Term Carrier MVRV (LTH-MVRV) only considers unspent transaction outputs with a life of at least 155 days. It serves as an indicator to assess the behavior of long-term investors.

The last four cycle lows were marked by the convergence of the STH MVRV and LTH MVRV lines. Such a crossing has not yet occurred. This implies that long-term holders are capitalizing compared to short-term holders.

Bitcoin Market Value to Realized Value, Source: Glassnode.com

Offer as profit/loss

The supply in profit and loss (SPL) examines the supply in circulation in profit and loss. In other words, it looks at the number of signals whose price was lower or higher than the current price when they last moved.

Like the previous two examples, the bottoms of the previous cycles were reached when the profit and loss lines converged. Currently, however, the winning line is still converging towards the losing line.