One of the most accurate indicators on the market shows that bitcoin (BTC) needs to go lower before it reaches the macro bottom.
Data from sources such as chain analysis firm Glassnode show that bitcoin’s MVRV-Z score is almost – but not entirely – a sign of a price reversal.
MVRV-Z score is approaching the macro level
Amid ongoing debate over whether, or when, BTC / USD will exceed its current macro limits of $ 17,600, new figures suggest that the market has easily left space.
Like the Note Filbfilb, co – founder of the Decenttrader trading series, the MVRV – Z score is now a classic green zone, but it’s not yet at the point of price reductions in the past.
MVRV-Z measures how high or low the spot price of bitcoin is relative to what is known as its “fair value”.
It uses market capitalization and realized price data, as well as standard deviation, to prove that it is proven to be one of the most effective tools for predicting Bitcoin peaks and troughs.
MVRV-Z has detected all macro highs and lows in the BTC / USD pair in its history with two weeks accuracy, according to data source LookIntoBitcoin.
The metrics below its green zone have only crossed a handful of times, the last one in March 2020, but a larger downside pressure would repeatedly reverse that performance.
“This chart is the only one for me,” Filbfilb said in recent readings.
“It usually arises when the market limit is about 30% below the realized capitalization – currently $ 15,600. As a result, there is a danger that anything above that level will be different this time, I think. ”
The area under $ 16,000 is starting to take effect
$ 15,600 would be in line with various existing projections as to where bitcoin should bottom out.
Read also: Trader says Bitcoin will have “Long Bear Market” with Resistance at $ 19,000
In an update for Twitter followers over the weekend, the popular CryptoBullet account highlighted this area among some important support areas to look at.
The median deviation from bitcoin’s 50-month moving average is also $ 16,000, he confirmed.
Some very important #BTC levels:
16k – Average deviation from MA50 (-25%)
14k – 2019 Echo Bubble Top
12.2k – Celsius Clearance
10.7k – Horizontal Main Level https://t.co/hEcnj8wsak pic.twitter.com/1Xke0F7WSe
—CryptoBullet (@ CryptoBullet1) July 2, 2022
Some very important #BTC levels: 16,000 – MA50 average spread (-25%) 14,000 – 2019 echo bubble top 12,200 – Celsius liquefaction. 10,700 – Horizontal Key Level https://t.co/hEcnj8wsak pic.twitter.com/1Xke0F7WSe – CryptoBullet (@ CryptoBullet1) July 2, 2022
Bitcoin already has a Bitcoin relative strength index, or RSI (“relative strength index”) lowest levelwhich is another indication of the oversold nature of the market which is below the nearly $ 20,000 peak of the previous expansion cycle.
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