Bitcoin (BTC) could fall more than 40% from last week’s low, according to new data, as analysts address what it sees as a bear market.
In a series of tweets posted on May 20, well-known trader and analyst Rekt Capital declared that the BTC / USD pair would have to drop to close to $ 20,000 to adhere to historical norms.
The cross-death target price for BTC is now $ 22,700
There has been a lot of debate about structures called the “Death Cross” on the bitcoin chart. This is the crossing of the 50-day moving average (50MA) that falls below that of 200 days (200 MA).
In the past, such an event has often led to a significant drop in prices, which in turn marks what Rekt Capital calls “knee lows”.
“Correction depth in $ BTC before the Cross of Death is often similar to the depth of the variable after the Cross of Death,” he summarizes.
However, March 2020 and May 2021 broke the rules on post-mortem cross-losses – in both cases, the death cross itself was marked at the bottom.
In January 2022, the historical trend seemed to return, as a ‘Death Cross’ type event occurred when the BTC / USD pair was already down 43% from record highs of $ 69,000. November 2021.
However, a further 43% withdrawal from that puts the pair at $ 22,700.
So sincere #BTC There has been a -43% crash since November ’21 before the Death Cross …$ BTC it could recover a little more to reach a total of -43% after the Cross of Death, if this historical trend were to continue again
– Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) May 20, 2022
So, since #BTC has crashed -43% since November 2021 before the Cross of Death … $ BTC it could pull back a bit more to reach a full -43% after the Death Cross, if this historical trend continues to repeat. . This would translate to $ BTC of ~ 22,700 # Crypto #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/aH91tn2xmr – Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) May 20, 2022
“However, the interesting thing about a -43% crash case after the Death Cross is that it would result in $ 22,000 BTC,” the final tweet says. , accompanied by a chart highlighting key return on investment (ROI) opportunities over the centuries. .
“Related to the 200-SMA (orange), which tends to provide great opportunities with oversized ROI for $ BTC investors (green circles highlight this).”
Dealing with the bear market
Elsewhere, co-analyst Filbfilb, co-founder of Decenttrader trading platform, said the time has come to acknowledge that bitcoin is in a bear market.
See also: Bitcoin Must Protect These Price Levels to Avoid a “Much Deeper” Fall: Analysis
In its last market update on May 20, Filbfilb cited the one – year moving average as the key to coming back to leave the quagmire that arose after losing it in support in early April.
“Ultimately, we continue to find ourselves in a bear market. This has been the case since the price shifted from the one-year moving average, which we have highlighted as a key risk. […] when the price was rejected from that level, ”he wrote.
“Until we can reach this level, we need to face the reality that we are in a market mark for $ BTC.”
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