Here is our Wednesday BTC / USD analysis along with the traditional weekly report summary from Glassnode and the latest news from US legislation.
Glassnode Weekly Chain Report Summary
Glassnode took a look this week at the ” Il Mayer “. This indicator is a ratio between the price of BTC sports and the famous 200-day moving average. GN notes that the indicator settles in a range (0.6 – 0.8) in two distinct stages with four bear markets down:
- Step A: Start the bear market, just after a post-ATH sale that panics investors.
- Step B: Towards the end of the mark market, when the bun and a final surrender occurs.
“Prices have been rising between $ 25,200 and $ 33,700 since May 5, which is more similar to stage B of previous bear cycles. In terms of probability, it should be noted that the price of bitcoin at the same time as Mayer multiples was only 0.8 7.9% of the time. ”says GN.
In other words, we are probably very close to these Bun unless it’s already behind us.
The second indicator highlighted this week: the Realized Price Model. This indicator shows the average price at which all bitcoins were last traded. This average price is currently $ 23,600.
However, the fall in the price of bitcoin is below the Realized price always coincides with bun as you can see in the following graph. Glassnode explains:
“Historically, the Realized Price cyclic support was very strong. Bitcoin has closed 84.9% of its days above this level. In other words, BTC closed its days below the Realized Price only 15.1% of the time, which is in line with Mayer’s multiples of 0.8. »
Glassnode then turned to summing unrealized profits and losses to try to confirm that the bun far behind us. This metric [Net Unrealized Profit/Loss] answers the following question: if all BTC were sold today, how much did investors gain or lose?
The addition of unrealized profits and unrealized losses makes it possible to determine whether the network as a whole is currently in profit or loss. Here is the GN analysis:
“Since early May, this metric has fluctuated between 18% and 25%, indicating that investors invested in BTC are making a hidden profit of just under 25% of the money. market cap of BTC. This market structure is similar to the pre-capitalization stages of previous bear markets. In the case of capitation, the metric generally falls towards a latent loss of 25% market cap of BTC. Because of the Realized Price of $ 23,600, the corresponding price range of $ 23,600 to $ 20,560 would be a great captioning case [finale avant le bull run]. »
Further information is available in the weekly glassnode report (a full French translation is published two days after publication). We find, for example, that almost 58% of BTC in circulation represents a latent gain. Compare it to the last three market capitalizations, when more than 50% of BTC was in the red.
In addition, only 2.2% of BTC held STHs (Short Term Holders)) which is in profit. Which means that almost all BTCs received less than 155 days ago are in the red.
The LTHs (Long Term Holders > 155 days) not left out. Only 55.7% of its BTC is still showing unrealized profit, compared to 68.5% in April.
Finally, let us reiterate that all buyers from January 2021 are in the red and we are at levels where BTC only ventures 15% of the time. GN thinks we are not far from the bun.
Cynthia Lummis’ introduction of a bill to the US Congress could add to this time of change.
Bitcoin comes to the capitol
Senator Cynthia Lummis has finalized her bill offers a clear legislative framework for bitcoin. This law will facilitate and accelerate the participation of private banks, public companies and institutional investors.
The main measure of this bill is the use of bitcoin as a payment method. If passed, purchases under $ 200 will be exempt from capital gains tax.
The bill sets out a framework for distinguishing digital assets between “ commodities “and “securities”. The famous howey-test used to determine whether a digital asset is dependent on one or the other.
an howey-test it is stated that an asset “Security when it is “a contract or system by which a person invests his money in a project from which the investor expects profits only thanks to the efforts of his promoter”.
The definition proposed by Cynhtia Lummis is:
Digital assets that are not fully decentralized and that benefit from “enterprise and management” efforts. […]but not debt or equity securities, or create rights to profit […]they are not “securities” […]. »
Question: Does the pre-mined ETH 70% equal “equity”. In addition, did the remuneration of the nodes in the CSO amount to “benefit rights”?
If this were the case, Bitcoin and Ethereum would not be a box in the same category. Ethereum will no longer be able to claim “currency” and we could see a purge… The ETH / BTC pair is very close to sinking…
The SEC will make digital assets classified as “securities” and the CFTC will be responsible for supervising those stamped “commodities”. This 69 page bill comes at just the right time as fund giant Fidelity wants to add bitcoin to its retirement savings funds (401k):
This bill could pave the way for the long-awaited ETF since the SEC justifies the repeated barriers of lack of regulation. ETFs will allow investment funds to pour hundreds of billions into bitcoin.
All this is a very good indication, especially since the German Ministry of Finance is opposed to the European Parliament wanting to ban exchanges from allowing their customers to withdraw their BTC on their own. purse private. It should also be noted that the French deputy Stone Man just published its report on cryptocurrencies.
Let’s finish with the main reason for having bitcoin: inflation. It was those who always had the value (gold) reserve that pulled out of the game against the horrors of History. Much faster and rarer, bitcoin can only cut runners on the barbaric remnant as the barrel of oil heads goes ever higher.
Here’s what the FT recommends by reporting the words of Jeremy Wair who sees a barrel at $ 150 over the next few months. This is more than the level that triggered the subprime crisis in 2008 ($ 147)…
Even Janet Yellen said “Expects inflation to remain high” :
Hyperinflation is imminent. Protect your savings. Bitcoin!
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Journalist reporting on the Bitcoin revolution. My papers deal with bitcoin through geopolitical, economic and libertarian prisms.