In the middle of the week, we witness a fall in Bitcoin volatility. The daily candles appear to be at -6 or 7% fading and give way to range. This perfectly reflects the uncertainty between buyers and sellers. Whether it is Bitcoin or less risky assets, the correlation has rarely been so strong. Powell did not reassure investors yesterday by saying that the Fed will focus on inflation even if the markets pay a high price. Investors fear the worst. This provides complete blurring vis-à-vis the macro and pushes the bearish biases to the center of the stage. Some altcoins took advantage of this small relief to get back on their feet while others, on the contrary, died slowly. Admit it, the economic and geopolitical situation does not help, but that does not explain everything. In parallel with bitcoin, I provide you with XRP (XRP) analysis at the end of the page. We’re out to Bitcoin this week 360 °. I will try to be as complete as possible while sharing my feelings about the market. Good read!
Volume of interesting areas
The latest daily candles are quite interesting and can give buyers hope.
Among the various things I find interesting about this price action, I note:
-Liquidity intake at the peak of last June, a lot of stop losses left here, find themselves filled and thus some of the buyers become liquidated or exit.
– Return to the bottom of the range. An area that many buyers are interested in. We see it instantly on this lock, which shows the interest of the latter.
-Wat strong on the semifinal candle, indicating a buying force, something we had not seen since a bullish candle on March 21st.
It may make sense to pick a place or two on strong corners. Be equally careful not to expose yourself too much to altcoins since the market is becoming increasingly risky. That is to say, investors are moving towards beta-safe assets and therefore low enough volatility to address the risks and uncertainties over these markets.
To qualify his comments, we still see strong bearish bitcoin. 8 consecutive bearish candles. This is rare and emphasizes investor vigilance. The sellers managed to bring the price below the latest lows. So they challenge the basic trend.
The Fear and Saint index is 9, a level rarely achieved. For me, there is no catalyst that could pull the markets together. The rebound is really weak and shows that buyers are struggling to listen.
Financial markets have been falling for several months now. Almost every asset class is affected. This is the main consequence of a change in monetary policy.
A macro, a vector of uncertainty
The years of increases, driven by a simple and clearly favorable framework, like many quantitative easing that encourages direct flows into the financial markets, or even very low and very suitable rates, are now over. The historical focus of nutrition on growth for 40 years has now been replaced by the seeming emphasis on inflation and price control.
Investors are now moving forward with market uncertainty and this is not reflected in the withdrawal of liquidity within these markets and the shift from risk to risk. In fact, assets like gold, more secure, say they are very courteous. On the other hand, risky assets such as cryptocurrencies or equities are of less interest, as beta is too high and portfolios too prone to losses.
So the feed puts the markets in the background until inflation stabilizes. This therefore requires at least several months of rising interest rates. Powell was clear about this, which is going to be the main focus for the next few months, no matter what.
Given the high correlation between SP500 and cryptocurrencies, it is even more relevant to look at the index.
The huge support broke at $ 4150 a few weeks ago now. Returning to this area, which now has the resistance, would allow sellers to return to this level to put pressure on them. Conversely, reintegration and instantaneous breakdown of resistance could lead to a better future. If the index goes down, I would then stay with the 3500-3600 zone to reposition myself on risky assets.
Nothing is done at the moment, I am not only sharing the scenarios that I have in mind but also the levels that are interesting to me.
A crypto index that must hold
The cryptoindex is still on support. Be careful not to close below. This may accelerate the decline in the medium term and in particular the decline of altcoins. Conversely, in the case of recurrence at these levels, the cryptocurrencies could identify strong enthusiasm and multiples to build.
Uniswap is a sign that is suffering despite a good foundation
Let’s now move on to analyzing a wedge that is essentially solid. One of the largest AMMs on the market: Uniswap and its UNI token.
The coin, like many altcoins, is suffering greatly in this time of uncertainty. It came back on almost all the rise. That’s more than 90% down from the peak of April 2021. If you have a bullish bias in the market, then it makes sense for you to build a line at the $ 4 or $ 5. We find the accumulated zone that made it possible to create this strong increase. Related to new AMM items like Univ3 and staff. The medium term goal would be $ 20, even if, without lying to you, we need strength in the crypto market and especially in altcoins to get to this level.
Of course bitcoin is not helping and this will continue as long as the underlying bearish trend and altcoins are overshadowed by BTC.
Finally, I get a lot of questions asked of me on the site where I analyze my values. Personally, and for many years, I have been using TradingView, an intuitive interface with many tools and a wide selection of assets. It is clearly the most developed and most used interface on the market.
This is the end of this analysis, please feel free to give me feedback on my Twitter account @ 0cakin. Don’t be too fat, make regular profits, be successful money management do do trades and trust your original plan. Only invest what you can lose as long as it does not affect your morale too much. Have a good week everyone and see you next week for a new analysis!
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I am passionate about technical and technological analysis, I have been diligently pursuing cryptocurrencies since 2017. Rather than trading and investing, I am trying to democratize, in my own way, the ecosystem that will inevitably change our habits tomorrow!