Bitcoin resets light colors at the beginning of June. The price seems to be leaving the range in which it has been emerging for several weeks now. Bullish recovery case or simple trap for buyers? Still dominated by US markets and afraid of the macro background, the victory of the pessimist and the realization of every green candle is real. Be that as it may, markets seem to be in complete uncertainty, especially given the macroeconomy that has not been seen for over 15 years. At the same time as bitcoin, I offer you an analysis of Ethereum (ETH) that looks like one of the strongest cryptos in this complex period for crypto. Without further ado, we head to Bitcoin 360 ° this week. I will try to be as complete as possible while sharing my feelings about the market. Good read!
Bitcoin recovers volatility
As much as in recent weeks Bitcoin seemed to decorrelate slightly from US markets, as much as in the last few days it has become more complex than our digital gold. Bitcoin loses more than 5% in 2 days when the SP500 is at -3%. Of course, the beta is always higher on cryptos so don’t worry.
Volatility seems to be back at last, but on the decline. Our assets have been developing over the past week between the $ 31,000 ceiling and the $ 28,500 bottom limit. Although an attempt has been made to leave in the last few days, Wednesday 1 June, the situation is no longer clear. The 2 very imaginative scenarios here are:
-Simple withdrawal at the top of the range to accumulate momentum and search the $ 35,000 area
-Purchase trap for the simple purpose of liquefying even more people, re-entering the range and then breaking it down to new lows.
To find out more about these scenarios, we will have to wait until the weekend and hope for a buying force to preserve this exit from the zone.
Personally, I live pretty much on the SP500 which is not the most bullish, but which delivers good information.
Some people will see a W that seems to have some appearance on the daily bottom, it’s possible. In this case, I would like to see a strong break of the blue resistance at $ 41,000. What I am looking at is more than a simple bounce up to the resistance to look behind your new lows and maybe the $ 35,000 area.
The key is to follow the SP500 which may give indications for the encrypted movement with more% up or down. However, the volatility is still very high, so always be careful with your jobs, especially in the future. There still seems to be a danger awaiting a rebound. Bearish days can go up -4% as they did on the NASDAQ recently, while bullish days are not very fruitful.
Market risk off
It may make sense to pick a place or two on strong corners. Be equally careful not to expose yourself too much to altcoins as the market is getting bigger and bigger risk-off. That is to say, investors are moving towards beta-safe assets and therefore low enough volatility to address the risks and uncertainties over these markets. Waiting for several days or weeks for increases in dangerous assets such as altcoins will be a first sign that flows have returned to this asset class. On the contrary, it may not be the best solution to buy big red candles but a smart DLP (Average Cost Dollar).
A short – term rebound is possible, but I still have a long – term bearish bias with dominant market uncertainty.
The Fear and Satisfaction index is still at very low levels, reflecting this uncertainty, but in spite of all that motivates spot-buyers because of this feature.
For me, there is no catalyst that could pull the markets together. The rebound is really weak and shows that buyers are struggling to listen.
Pessimistic analysts in the traditional market
Despite encouraging economic figures, this Wednesday’s look very red for the various markets. JPMorgan Chase chief executive Jamie Dimon told a conference this morning that the economy was “a hurricane” and “better prepared”.
Well, just because someone is pessimistic, does not mean that you have to sell everything, however, it is necessary to understand the attitude of other investors.
Below are nine of the 11 S&P sectors, and the pack is being followed by real estate. Increasing energy and information technologies. In economic data this morning, May’s ISM manufacturing index rose unexpectedly to 56.1, making it no easier for buyers. The JOLTS report for April showed a drop to 11.4 million new jobs, as expected.
“Layouts remain extremely low,” tweeted In fact economist Nick Bunker. “These data only cover the end of April, but there is still a long way to go before lay-off rates are successful. »
“The resignation rate remains high but has stabilized in recent months. There is even a slight decrease compared to the end of last year, ”he said. “The leisure and hospitality sector saw a significant reduction in the retirement rate, with a fall of half a percentage point during the month, to 5.2% in April. The leisure and hospitality sector was one of the most important strengths of retirement, but things are deteriorating in this area. »
How do traditional and macro markets affect us? If one thing is known, it is that all markets are highly correlated. The macroeconomy affects investors in the same way and understanding what is happening around us is crucial for good management of their crypto and other positions.
Ethereum close to 2.0
Altcoins are not an Olympic form. In fact, the beta, which measures asset volatility, is much higher on the latter. So they are often in trouble. Gold Ethereum is considered by many to be altcoin. Anyway, it is still less volatile than Bitcoin in most cases but the rest less than its co-altcoins.
Precisely, when we compare ETH and BTC we see that the performance of Vitalik Buterin signal is much better than Satoshi signal in recent years.
However, I see this relationship changing in the coming weeks. This has already started with a loss of momentum. Returning to 0.05 or 0.04 seems like a good time to regain strength and turn ETH upside down compared to Bitcoin.
As I often say, this is not the best time to invest in risky assets.
If we compare the Ethereum and the Dollar, we see that the latter is at the bottom of this range, on support.
There’s a lot of money to be found right below, and I can’t see a case where we’ll be looking for it without it. Buying at these levels makes sense and can be a strategy. But as I said, the uncertainty in the markets probably means that few buyers will be in favor of this scenario.
My second case, the worst case scenario, is a single font filler, a low-exchange zone that is at the $ 700 level. For many it’s scary, but it’s still 6 times bigger than the old bottom.
Anyway, the goal is not to predict the court, but to respond to what it offers us. However, it seems to me that buying under range is a good long term opportunity.
Of course bitcoin is not helping and this will continue as long as the underlying bearish trend and altcoins are overshadowed by BTC.
Finally, I get a lot of questions asked of me on the site where I analyze my values. Personally, and for many years, I have been using TradingView, an intuitive interface with many tools and a wide selection of assets. It is clearly the most developed and most used interface on the market.
This is the end of this analysis, please feel free to give me feedback on my Twitter account @ 0cakin. Don’t be too fat, make regular profits, be successful money management do do trades and trust your original plan. Only invest what you can lose as long as it does not affect your morale too much. Have a good week everyone, and see you next week for a new analysis!
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Áicine
Passionate about technical analysis and technology, I have been diligently pursuing cryptocurrencies since 2017. Rather than trading and investing, I try to democratize, in my own way, the ecosystem that will undoubtedly change our habits of tomorrow!
