No wonder, bitcoin has been just as volatile in recent months. However, the daily candles at -6 or 7% appear to be fading and yielding to their tidy. Better yet, red seems to soften the markets much better than the US indices for example. Be that as it may, markets seem to be in complete uncertainty, especially given the macroeconomy that has not been seen for over 15 years. In parallel with bitcoin, I provide you with Chiliz (CHZ) analysis at the end of the page. We’re out to Bitcoin this week 360 °. I will try to be as complete as possible while sharing my feelings about the market. Good read!
Bitcoin is a good tank
The last few days have not been the greatest benefit for the traders. volatility interval almost non – existent. Our assets have been developing over the past week between the $ 31,000 ceiling and the $ 28,500 bottom limit. This is one of the first time a buyer – seller deal has been seen since ATH last November (All Time High).
Break the tidy perhaps crucial.
– Continue reduction of case 1.
-Bounce upside down, short-lived, in my opinion. In this case, I imagine that bitcoin will reach the $ 35,000 area before the sellers come to fix it and continue the downturn.
The key is to follow the SP500 which may issue a bounce in the short term. This would give bitcoin enough momentum to rebound. However, the index has been very volatile over the last few days and looks very similar to gaming. There still seems to be a danger awaiting a rebound. Bearish days can go up -4% as they did on the NASDAQ recently, while bullish days are not very fruitful.
Market risk off
It may make sense to pick a place or two on strong corners. Be equally careful not to expose yourself too much to altcoins as the market is getting bigger and bigger risk-off. That is to say, investors are moving towards beta-safe assets and therefore low enough volatility to address the risks and uncertainties over these markets.
A short – term rebound is possible, but I still have a long – term bearish bias with dominant market uncertainty.
The Fear and Sint index is still at very low levels, reflecting this uncertainty, but despite all that the buying spot encourages because of this feature.
For me, there is no catalyst that could pull the markets together. The rebound is really weak and shows that buyers are struggling to listen.
A macro, a vector of uncertainty
The years of increases, driven by a simple and clearly favorable framework, like many quantitative easing that encourages direct flows into the financial markets, or even very low and very suitable rates, are now over. The historical emphasis of nutrition on growth for 40 years has now been replaced by the seeming emphasis on inflation and price control.
From now on, investors are moving forward in uncertainty in the markets and this is reflected by the withdrawal of liquidity within those markets and a change in risk on to risk-off. In fact, say assets like gold, plus bye, they are very courteous. On the other hand, risky assets such as cryptocurrencies or equities are of less interest, as beta is too high and portfolios too prone to losses.
So the feed puts the markets in the background until inflation stabilizes. So this takes at least a few months to raise interest rates. Powell was clear about this, which is going to be the main focus for the next few months, no matter what.
Monetary policy has a powerful influence on the incentive structure of market participants and, in this way, on the price cycle of monetary assets and aggregates. As this cycle widens through global financial markets, domestic monetary policy is bound to have international consequences.
Monetary policy focused on domestic price stability generally supports financial stability. In the current situation, for example, the ECB’s continued monetary easing not only supports the return of inflation to levels close to 2%, but also helps repair the euro area balance sheet and mitigates the risk of consequences. negative on the financial systems. of other economies.
Sometimes, however, overly rigorous interpretation of the price stability objective can lead to conflicts between price stability and financial stability. And failure by major central banks to properly take this risk into account in their monetary policy strategies can lead to the creation of new financial vulnerabilities or the strengthening of existing ones worldwide.
In this context, the ECB follows a flexible medium – term horizon and, as part of its two – pillar strategy, closely monitors money and credit dynamics that can act as signals for increasing financial imbalances. In order to address these imbalances, other areas of activity such as macro-prudence and regulation need to play their part in ensuring stability in the context of good macroeconomic performance.
The Chiliz in weak form
Altcoins are not an Olympic form. In fact, the beta, which measures asset volatility, is much higher on the latter. So they are often in trouble. The Chiliz is one. He has lost 90% of his ATH and is returning to levels that may qualify as attractive in the long run.
I highlighted OB (Order Block) which can lead to purchase pressure. However, the $ 0.2 resistance looks strong and will hardly allow the price to break.
I have illustrated the most similar scenario I can imagine on the chart. As I often say again, this is not the best time to invest in risky assets.
On the contrary, some altcoins have taken advantage of this little relief from bitcoin recovery. Win the ghost almost 100% over time. On the contrary, some die slowly.
Of course bitcoin is not helping and this will continue as long as the underlying bearish trend and altcoins are overshadowed by BTC.
Finally, I get a lot of questions that I ask on the site where I analyze my values. Personally, and for many years, I have been using TradingView, an intuitive interface with many tools and a wide selection of assets. It is clearly the most developed and most used interface on the market.
This is the end of this analysis, please feel free to give me feedback on my Twitter account @ 0cakin. Don’t be too fat, make regular profits, be successful money management do do trades and trust your original plan. Only invest what you can afford to lose as long as it does not affect your morale too much. Have a good week everyone, and see you next week for a new analysis!
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I am passionate about technical and technological analysis, I have been diligently pursuing cryptocurrencies since 2017. Rather than trading and investing, I try, in my own way, to democratize the ecosystem that will change our habits tomorrow!