Bitcoin (BTC) could already start its new bullish macro trend if historical “hodl” patterns repeat.
This is the conclusion of research on the latest data covering the quantity of BTC supply that has been idle for a year or more as of July 2022.
Hodled BTC indicates the end of the bear market
According to independent analyst Miles Johal, who posted his findings on social media on July 29, a “round top” formation in “hodled” BTC is converging.
Once it does, the price should respond – as it has done many times before.
The clue is in bitcoin’s HODL wave metric, which breaks down the supply based on the last time each bitcoin was changed hands. A year or so ago – the 1 year HODL wave – represents most of the current supply.
The chart attached by Johal shows that the greater the percentage of the total supply that has been stagnant for at least one year, the closer the BTC/USD pair is to the macro bottom.
More importantly, however, a slowdown of the 1-year HODL wave – indicating that accumulation is easing – followed by the start of a reversal has always occurred at the start of a new long-term uptrend in BTC price. .
This “round top” graphic phenomenon is therefore being noted as a potential source of hope, as bitcoin has already made up for lost ground.
In the comments, Johal argued that not many people paid attention to HODL waves.
Foreign exchange balances are at their lowest level since 2018
Separate data from the chain analysis firm Glassnode highlighted the current trend of bitcoins exiting exchanges.
Also Read: Bitcoin Price Rise Gets Interesting As BTC Price Hits Six-Week High
BTC in exchange wallets is now only 12.6% of total supply, a 4.6% decrease in total supply since the March 2020 crash, the team noted.
Exchange balances have seen a macro outflow of more than 4.6% of circulating supply since ATH March 2020.
Live Chart: https://t.co/zJnfaG05zt pic.twitter.com/vhKCudqGUr
— glassnode (@glassnode) July 29, 2022
The #Bitcoin balance on exchanges continues its macro decline, reaching 12.6% of the supply in circulation ($2.4M BTC). A macro outflow of more than 4.6% of the supply in circulation is now visible on exchange balances from ATH March 2020. Live chart: https://t.co/zJnfaG05zt pic.twitter.com/ vhKCudqGUr — glassnode (@glassnode ) July 29, 2022 .
In terms of BTC, the balance is now 2.4 million BTC, compared to 3.15 million BTC in March 2020. This figure is the lowest since July 2018.
Earlier this month, Cointelegraph reported an accelerating trend in withdrawing their coins from exchanges where they were.
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