Bitcoin and Ethereum futures are once again leading the spot markets

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Bitcoin and Ethereum futures traders are back. This shows that at least the Terra fallout has been overcome.

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Is recovery imminent?

An analysis of Bitcoin and Ethereum futures volume shows that dominance has come to the fore time and time again.

Notice

On spot markets, traders can buy and sell tokens for instant transactions. Spot Volume refers to the total amount of coins transferred on the chain, counting only successful transfers.

In contrast, futures traders buy and sell derivative contracts that represent the value of a particular cryptocurrency. Experienced traders prefer futures trading as profits can be made in either direction of the market.

Because experienced traders use leverage and are usually better capitalized than spot traders, under “normal” conditions, futures markets tend to turn more volume compared to spot markets.

Ethereum Spot and Futures Markets

The chart below shows the general trend of Ethereum spot volume to close on the futures market. However, the silver markets were particularly strong at the end of 2021 and at the start of the new year.

From the end of June 2022, the discrepancy between futures and the cash market will become more apparent. Analysts suspect this is due to the growing speculation about Ethereum’s upcoming upgrade “The Merge”. This integrates Ethereum’s current execution layer with the Proof-of-Stake (PoS) consensus layer.

Spot Ethereum vs. futures volume, ETH futures volume vs transfer volume (source: Glassnode)

Bitcoin spot and futures markets

An analysis of the bitcoin spot and futures markets shows a different picture. The chart below shows that futures volume is significantly ahead at the start of the 2021 bull run. However, when BTC price peaked in Q4 2021, this situation reversed – spot volume took the lead .

As of June 2022, futures traders have reaffirmed their position. This has led to a renewed increase in futures volume.

Bitcoin Spot vs. Futures, Futures to Spot BTC Ratio (Source: Glassnode)

BTC and ETH ratio

The futures/spots ratio shows the above as a line chart. Bitcoin futures/pot ratio was much higher than Ethereum in the first half of 2021.

A lull followed in which both ratios fell and became closely correlated. However, the Ethereum Futures/Spot Ratio has increased compared to the BTC ratio since June 2022 due to price speculation about the upcoming merger event.

BTC and ETH Futures/Spot Ratio, BTC and ETH Futures/Spot Ratio (Source: Glassnode)

The renewed increase in the volume of BTC and ETH futures suggests that derivatives traders are once again speculating on risky assets. This suggests that derivatives traders are assuming that the leverage that led to Terra’s fall has left the market.

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Text credit: Cryptoslate