Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading at its lowest level since mid-December 2020 on June 13, but the bottom could be anywhere.
As weekend sales increase, the BTC / USD pair has broken below its realized price for the first time since March 2020, this is confirmed by data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
Bitcoin adheres to the realized price
At around $ 23,400, the realization price – the average price at which all BTCs last moved – serves as the first strong support to date on the lower time frames.
Previous levels, including those highlighted as potential lows, have not stood still, and the outlook remains in favor of renewed sales pressure on the current Celsius situation, inflation and forthcoming activities from the US Federal Reserve.
The point at which the BTC / USD pair could become a decisive macroeconomic floor is now a matter of debate.
The first point of contact for a significant withdrawal is the simple 200-week moving average (200 SMA), traders and analysts agree.
At $ 22,370 on June 13, the 200-week simple moving average served as the main support for the lifetime of bitcoin, with only brief declines below this average marking the generation low prices in the spot price.
The 200-day SMA has never surpassed its own trend, and beneficiaries are expected to pause for its achievement.
“People want to buy there, it’s more likely to bounce in that area,” he said supported Josh Rager in a video update dedicated to the day.
Describing the rebound at the SMA-200 level as a “self-fulfilling prophecy”, thanks to the scale of interest it is generating, he warned that there was a guarantee that BTC / USD would not continue to decline. this time.
This is thanks to a historical precedent, which shows that the base of Bitcoin is as high as 84% below the last high. At $ 69,000, such a floor would be at just $ 11,000.
“That would be detrimental; I do not think the price is going that low, I mean you are basically looking for the whole bull market and we have never seen that, ”continued Rager.
Instead, areas of interest are at an all-time high in 2017 of around $ 20,000, plus the area just below, which stretches to $ 17,000. Also worth noting is $ 14,000, which equates to 80% off the current all-time highs, he said.
As Cointelegraph reports, some of these levels have already been highlighted by others as potential lows, including the trader and analyst Rekt Capital.
In a series of tweets on June 13, the importance of the SMA-200 reappeared.
Historically, #BTC tend to wick -14% to -28% below the 200-week MA
~ $ 19000 would be transferred to -14% wick this time $ BTC
– Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) June 13, 2022
Historically, BTC has tended to fall from -14% to -28% below the 200-week MA. It would move to BTC at ~ $ 19,000 with a peak of -14% this time. A -28% wick would mean BTC could hit as low as ~ $ 15,500 before reversing higher #Crypto #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/j9tal7ZSt0 – Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) June 13, 2022
The feed becomes the last chance place for the bulls
As of this writing, the BTC / USD pair managed to avoid another fall after the US stock market.
Read also: Lowest weekly close since December 2020 – 5 things to know about bitcoin this week
On the other hand, the S&P 500 lost 3% in the first trading hour, while the Nasdaq Composite Index lost 3.6%.
To stop the decline of the cryptocurrency, some people say that only the Fed can intervene, reversing monetary tightening as rising interest rates drive growth.
“Understand that this cryptocurrency slide is unrelated to Celsius and the ETH drama and everything related to the widespread panic in risky assets (stocks and cryptocurrencies) and broken charts,” he said. declared economist, trader and entrepreneur Alex Krueger to his Twitter followers on the day, sweeping up the Celsius news.
another post said :
“It simply came to our notice then. My estimate is that Celsius added 1.2x to the fuel. Everyone makes something Celsius out of it. Look at the media tomorrow. But without Friday’s CPI numbers and the stock crash, this would not have happened. »
However, long-term participants in the bitcoin market have rarely had delusions. If BTC / USD fell below $ 20,000, it would be the first time the record level has been broken since the previous half cycle.
—Ansel Lindner (@AnselLindner) June 13, 2022
#Fed FOMC starts tomorrow. Probability of raising 50bp or 75bp. pic.twitter.com/ftdQ9ZpmcL – Ansel Lindner (@AnselLindner) June 13, 2022
“Without a pivot from the Fed, I expect this to be the first cycle in which bitcoin falls below the high of previous cycles,” said Charles Edwards, CEO of asset manager Capriole.
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