According to ARK Investment Management, bitcoin (BTC) presents a “positively neutral” outlook even though it is still below $ 20,000.
In its latest “Bitcoin Monthly” report, the US asset management giant showed that the price of BTC is close to bottom.
Wood: “We are waiting for more signs of capitation”
One of bitcoin ‘s staunch admirers, ARK and its CEO, Cathie Wood, maintained exposure to BTC as the market continues to fall from the all – time highs.
The latest release from Bitcoin Monthly confirms this belief, with Wood, analysts and research partner David Puell suggesting that there is little way to go before the curve in the BTC / USD pair reverses.
“Down 70% from the all-time high, bitcoin is trading at or below some of its most important levels: its 200-week moving average, the general market cost level (realized price), long-term cost levels. term (LTH) and short – term (STH) holders, peaking in 2017, ”the report states.
“Trading at these levels is unusual and suggests that conditions are extremely sellable. Bitcoin has only traded below price levels compared to these averages four times in history.
So the majority of casualties should already be happening, if history is any guide. Metrics not yet experienced at all-time lows include the MVRV ratio – the ratio between the realized limit and the cost base of entities that run over different periods of time.
“Historically, global declines occur when MVRV short-term MVRV holders outnumber long-term holders,” explains ARK.
“This condition has not been met, suggesting that there may be more disadvantage.”
However, in general, Wood sees little concern especially as bitcoin markets suffer a macro storm of historical proportions.
In the latest issue of ARK’s podcast, “In the Know,” published on July 1, she described the firm’s attitude towards BTC as “positively neutral” overall.
“We are still waiting for some signs of capitation and, of course, time will tell what will happen on the systemic side. We have not heard another sign of stress in the last few days, which is also positive, ”said Wood.
The fall in prices should continue
The position of ARK is similar to that of some market commentators.
Read also: Will BTC continue to decline? 5 things to know about bitcoin this week
According to Cointelegraph, the consensus is set to fall towards $ 16,000, with most indicators on the chain already at rare or unprecedented lows.
Lower highs all the time. Pumps have low volume and have a corrective appearance.
The main target remains $ 15,800-16,200 pic.twitter.com/HNAB8MXQZZ
– il Capo Of Crypto (@CryptoCapo_) July 5, 2022
$ BTC.Lowl Highlights All The Time. The upside down volume is low and seems to be corrective. The main target is still $ 15,800-16,200 pic.twitter.com/HNAB8MXQZZ- il Capo Of Crypto (@CryptoCapo_) July 5, 2022
“Historically, the 200-week moving average has been the bottom indicator for BTC. In this cycle, things could be a little different, ”acclaimed trader and analyst Rekt Capital told his Twitter followers late last week, continuing to touch on the ARK theme.
“Instead of lowering $ BTC at the 200MA level, it could create a macro range below it. Anything below the 200MA is probably a spice opportunity. ”
The 200-week moving average currently sits at just over $ 22,550, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, and has never stopped rising.
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